2007 VK184

2007 VK184 is an asteroid which is listed on the Near-Earth Object Risk List with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1.^[3] A Torino rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger.^[4] As of 24 June 2011 (2011 -06-24)^[update], 2007 VK₁₈₄ and 2011 AG₅ are the only near-earth objects to be listed above Level 0 for potential impacts within 100 years.^[5] 2007 VK₁₈₄ was discovered on November 12, 2007, by the Catalina Sky Survey.^[1]

Further observations between December 18, 2007, and January 4, 2008, suggested an increase in the impact probability to 1 in 2700 chance for an impact with Earth during June 2048. A few days later, the impact probability was reverted back to a 1 in 3030 chance.

According to the Near-Earth Object list, 101 observations over 60 days suggests the asteroid has a probability of 1 in 1820 chance of hitting the Earth on June 3, 2048 at a distance of about 0.75 Earth radii (4815km).^[3] Those figures translate into a 0.055% chance of hitting (or 99.945% of missing). The nominal close approach is 0.032 AU (4,800,000 km; 3,000,000 mi) on 2048-May-30.^[6] The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of about 130 meters.^[3] Ignoring the acceleration of the asteroid due to the Earth's gravity, the velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the intersection of their orbits would be 19.19 km/s.

The 2014 close approach of 2007 VK₁₈₄^[6]

The asteroid has a modest observation arc of 60 days,^[2] and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid (Uncertainty=5)^[2] is complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars.^[6] The Earth close-approach of May 2014 may allow astronomers to refine the orbit and odds of a future collision.^[6] Most asteroids listing 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to Level 0 after more detailed observations.

See also

• 99942 Apophis, a NEO that, for a time, was thought to have a slight probability of striking the Earth in 2029. The likelihood that this will happen has now been determined to be zero, warranting a downgrade from Level 4 on the Torino impact hazard scale. A second possible impact date was set for 2036, but the likelihood of that impact was lowered to 1-in-250,000, causing the risk to be downgraded to Level 0.

References

External links

• NASA JPL Small-Body Database Browser on 2007 VK184
• Orbital simulation from JPL (Java) / Ephemeris
• List Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) (Minor Planet Center)

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