2011 AG5

2011 AG₅

Nominal orbit of 2011 AG5 passing the Earth-Moon system in February 2040. Earth is the blue dot, the Moon's orbit is gray, and 2011 AG5 is green.
Discovery[1]
Discovered by	Mt. Lemmon Survey (G96) 1.5-m reflector
Discovery date	8 January 2011
Designations
MPC designation	2011 AG5
Minor planet category	Apollo NEO, PHA[2]
Orbital characteristics[2]
Epoch 2012-Mar-14 (Uncertainty=3)[2]
Aphelion	1.989 AU (Q)
Perihelion	0.8723 AU (q)
Semi-major axis	1.430 AU (a)
Eccentricity	0.3902
Orbital period	1.71 yr
Mean anomaly	204.8° (M)
Inclination	3.680°
Longitude of ascending node	135.7°
Argument of perihelion	53.48°
Proper orbital elements
Physical characteristics
Dimensions	~140 meters[3]
Mass	4×109 kg (assumed)[3]
Mean density	unknown
Absolute magnitude (H)	21.85[2]

2011 AG₅ (also written 2011 AG5) is a near-Earth asteroid and potentially hazardous object.^[2] Pan-STARRS precovery images from 8 November 2010 have extended the observation arc to 317 days.^[4] It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1.^[5] A Torino rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger.^[6] It was discovered on 8 January 2011 by the Mt. Lemmon Survey at an apparent magnitude of 19.6 using a 1.52-metre (60 in) reflecting telescope.^[1] The asteroid has a diameter of about 140 meters^[3] and is noted by the Minor Planet Center for a potential close approach to the Earth in the year 2040 of about 0.001933 AU (289,200 km; 179,700 mi).^[7] It is estimated that an impact would produce the equivalent of 100 megatons of TNT,^[3] roughly twice that of most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated (Tsar Bomba).

Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory show 5 potential impacts between 2040 and 2047.^[3] It has a 1 in 500 chance of impacting the Earth on 5 February 2040.^[3] In September 2013, there will be an opportunity to make additional observations of 2011 AG5 when it comes within 0.98 AU (147,000,000 km; 91,000,000 mi) of Earth.^[8] The 2013 observations will allow a refinement to the known trajectory. The asteroid will also pass 0.01 AU (1,500,000 km; 930,000 mi) from the Earth on 3 February 2023.^[9][10]

As of October 2011^[update], 2011 AG₅ and 2007 VK₁₈₄ are the only near-earth objects to be listed above level 0 on the Torino Scale.^[5] With a Palermo Technical Scale of -1.01,^[3] the odds of impact by 2011 AG₅ are about 10 times less^[11] than the background hazard level of Earth impacts which is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact.^[12]

References

External links

• Orbital simulation from JPL (Java) / Ephemeris
• Table of next close approaches (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)
• MBPL - Minor Body Priority List (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)

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