41st Canadian federal election

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41st Canadian federal election
308 seats in the 41st Canadian Parliament
On or before October 15, 2012 (2012-10-15)
Leader		Stephen Harper	Michael Ignatieff	Gilles Duceppe
Party		Conservative	Liberal	Bloc Québécois
Leader since		2004	2008	1997
Leader's seat		Calgary Southwest	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Last election		143 seats, 37.65%	77 seats, 26.26%	49 seats, 9.98%
Leader		Jack Layton	Elizabeth May
Party		New Democrat	Green
Leader since		2003	2006
Leader's seat		Toronto—Danforth	Running in Saanich-Gulf Islands[1]
Last election		37 seats, 18.18%	0 seats, 6.78%

The 41st Canadian federal election is tentatively scheduled for October 15, 2012, under the Canada Elections Act, unless the 40th Canadian Parliament is dissolved earlier by the Governor General. Voters will choose members of the Canadian House of Commons for the 41st Canadian Parliament.

The 2008 federal election resulted in a second consecutive Conservative minority government. Though the first, elected during the 2006 federal election, lasted nearly three years and became the longest standing minority parliament in Canadian history. Minority governments rarely last longer than two years in Canada. As such it is likely that the next election will be called earlier than the scheduled date in 2012.

The election was nearly triggered twice during the current parliament. The first was a result of the 2008–2009 Canadian parliamentary dispute between December 2008 and February 2009. The second was the announcement by Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff in September 2009 that his party would no longer support the government.^[2] Though the current parliamentary instability continues, it now appears the opposition will not seek to trigger an election until late 2010 or early 2011.^[3]

Candidates by party

• Bloc Québécois candidates, 41st Canadian federal election
• Conservative Party candidates, 41st Canadian federal election
• Green Party candidates, 41st Canadian federal election
• Liberal Party candidates, 41st Canadian federal election
• New Democratic Party candidates, 41st Canadian federal election

40th Parliament party standings

Target seats

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2008 election. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 40th Canadian federal election.

Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election).

Targeted Cabinet ministers

The following Cabinet ministers were elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2008:

• Gail Shea, Fisheries and Oceans: 0.3% over Liberal in Egmont, PE
• Denis Lebel, Minister of State (Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec): 3.9% over Bloc in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean, QC
• Gary Lunn, Minister of State (Sport): 4.7% over Liberal in Saanich—Gulf Islands, BC
• Leona Aglukkaq, Health: 5.4% over Liberal in Nunavut, NU
• Diane Finley, Human Resources and Skills Development: 8.48% over Liberal in Haldimand—Norfolk, ON
• Lawrence Cannon, Foreign Affairs: 8.5% over Liberal in Pontiac, QC
• Peter Kent, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs (Americas): 9.58% over Liberal in Thornhill, ON

Incumbent MPs who will not run for re-election

Opinion polls

References

External links

• Elections Canada
• Election Almanac - Canada Federal Election 2009

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