acceptable risk

(geophysics) In seismology, that level of earthquake effects which is judged to be of sufficiently low social and economic consequence, and which is useful for determining design requirements in structures or for taking certain actions.

The term "acceptable risk" describes the likelihood of an event whose probability of occurrence is small, whose consequences are so slight, or whose benefits (perceived or real) are so great, that individuals or groups in society are willing to take or be subjected to the risk that the event might occur. The concept of acceptable risk evolved partly from the realization that absolute safety is generally an unachievable goal, and that even very low exposures to certain toxic substances may confer some level of risk. The notion of virtual safety corresponding to an acceptable level of risk emerged as a risk management objective in cases where such exposures could not be completely or cost-effectively eliminated.

Two proxy measures have been used to determine acceptable risk levels. The revealed-preference approach assumes that society, through trial and error, has achieved a nearly optimal, and thus acceptable, balance of risks and benefits. The expressed-preference approach uses opinion surveys and public consultations to obtain information about risk levels warranting mitigation action.

Although regulatory authorities are reluctant to define a precise level of acceptable risk, lifetime risks in the order of one in a million have been discussed in regulatory applications of the acceptable risk concept. This level of risk is considered to be de minimis, an abbreviation of the legal concept de minimus non curatlex (the law does not concern itself with trifles). Attempts have also been made to establish benchmarks, such as the risk of being hit by lightning, to help interpret such small risks. Higher levels of risk might be tolerated in the presence of offsetting health or economic benefits, when the risk is voluntary rather than involuntary, or when the population at risk is small.

Although conceptually attractive, application of the concept of acceptable risk is fraught with difficulty, ultimately involving consideration of social values. Inequities in the distribution of risks and benefits across society further complicate the determination of an acceptable level of risk.

(SEE ALSO: Benefits, Ethics, and Risks; Risk Assessment, Risk Management)

Bibliography

Fischoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Derby, S. L.; and Keeney, R. L. (1981). Acceptable Risk. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Hrudey, S., and Krewski, D. (1995). "Is There a Safe Level of Exposure to a Carcinogen?" Environmental Science and Technology 29:370A–375A.

Paling, J., and Paling, S. (1994). Up to Your Armpits in Alligators? How to Sort Out the Risks That Are Worth Worrying About. Gainesville, FL: The Environmental Institute.

Rodricks, J. V. (1992). Calculated Risks: The Toxicity and Human Health Risks of Chemicals in Our Environment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

— DANIEL KREWSKI