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Bernoulli trial

 
Dictionary: Bernoulli trial
 

n. Statistics.

An experiment having only two possible outcomes, usually denoted success and failure, with the properties that the probability of occurrence of each outcome is the same in each trial and the occurrence of one excludes the occurrence of the other in any given trial.

[After Jakob BERNOULLI.]


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In the theory of probability and statistics, a Bernoulli trial is an experiment whose outcome is random and can be either of two possible outcomes, "success" and "failure".

In practice it refers to a single experiment which can have one of two possible outcomes. These events can be phrased into "yes or no" questions:

  • Did the coin land heads?
  • Was the newborn child a girl?
  • Were a person's eyes green?
  • Did a mosquito die after the area was sprayed with insecticide?
  • Did a potential customer decide to buy a product?
  • Did a citizen vote for a specific candidate?
  • Did an employee vote pro-union?

Therefore success and failure are labels for outcomes, and should not be construed literally. Examples of Bernoulli trials include

  • Flipping a coin. In this context, obverse ("heads") conventionally denotes success and reverse ("tails") denotes failure. A fair coin has the probability of success 0.5 by definition.
  • Rolling a die, where a six is "success" and everything else a "failure".
  • In conducting a political opinion poll, choosing a voter at random to ascertain whether that voter will vote "yes" in an upcoming referendum.

Mathematical description

Mathematically, a Bernoulli trial can be described by a sample space Ω consisting of two values, s for "success" and f for "failure". Therefore the sample space is  \Omega = \{s, f\} \, . Then a random variable X can be defined on this sample space, that is, a function  X : \Omega \mapsto \mathbf{R} . In this case the random variable is very simple and given by

 X(\omega) = \begin{cases} 1 & \mbox{if } \omega = s \\ 0 & \mbox{if } \omega = f. \end{cases}

If p is the probability of observing a 1 and 1 - p the probability of observing a 0 (the probability distribution of X), then the expected value of X and its variance are given by

E[X] = 1 \cdot p + 0 \cdot (1 - p) = p \,
V[X] = E[X^2] - E^2[X] = p - p^2 = p(1 - p) \,

The standard deviation of X is simply \sqrt{p(1-p)}.\,

A Bernoulli process consists of repeatedly performing independent but identical Bernoulli trials.

The process of determining an expectation value and deviation, based on a limited number of Bernoulli trials is colloquially known as "checking if a coin is fair".

See also


 
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Dictionary. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2007, 2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2007. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.  Read more
Wikipedia. This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "Bernoulli trial" Read more