In American sports terminology, "clutch" means performing well under extreme pressure. It often refers to high levels of production in a critical game (such as Game 7 of a best-of-seven series), the last hole of a Major Championship golf tournament, or the final minute(s) in a close match. Being "clutch" is often seen by sportswriters and fans as an innate skill which some players have while others do not.

Usage

A "clutch" athlete is one who performs well in pivotal or high pressure situations. This includes many instances where a good performance means the difference between a win and a loss. Being on many championship teams (preferably with different franchises, or in different seasons with different teammates) seems to help a player's reputation for being clutch, but it is no guarantee in and of itself. Seizing upon one's opportunities in pressure situations is the common thread among all "clutch" players, though, as a player's poor past performance will be forgotten if he/she can make one big play under pressure. Of course, the opposite of being "clutch" is being a "choker," or one who is, by definition, never clutch, a player doomed to fail in any and all pressure-packed situations.

Skeptics

Some sports analysts have presented evidence that while individual plays and moments may resonate as "clutch" because of their importance, there is no such thing as "clutch ability" or an inherently clutch player. One example of such an argument is presented in the 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers published by Baseball Prospectus, which compiles evidence that no baseball players are demonstrably consistently clutch over the course of a career, and that the numbers of allegedly clutch players in clutch situations are in fact no different from players reputed to be "chokers."^[1]

The Baseball Prospectus team is hardly alone in their skepticism: various baseball analysts, including Bill James, Pete Palmer, and Dick Cramer, have similarly found so-called "clutch hitting" ability to be a myth. This is not to say that clutch hits, like those listed below, do not exist, but rather that any innate ability to perform well in high-pressure situations is an illusion. In his 1984 Baseball Abstract, James framed the problem with clutch hitting thusly: "How is it that a player who possesses the reflexes and the batting stroke and the knowledge and the experience to be a .260 hitter in other circumstances magically becomes a .300 hitter when the game is on the line? How does that happen? What is the process? What are the effects? Until we can answer those questions, I see little point in talking about clutch ability." Most studies on the matter involved comparing performance in the "clutch" category of statistics (production with runners in scoring position, performance late in close games, etc.) between seasons; if clutch hitting were an actual skill, it would follow that the same players would do well in the clutch statistics year in and year out (the correlation coefficient between players' performances over multiple seasons would be high). Cramer's study was the first of its kind, and it found that clutch hitting numbers between seasons for the same player varied wildly; in fact, the variance was the kind one would expect if the numbers had been selected randomly. Since Cramer published his results, many others have tried to find some evidence that clutch hitting is a skill, but almost every study has confirmed Cramer's initial findings: that "clutch hitting," in terms of certain players being able to "rise to the occasion" under pressure, is an illusion.

The explanation offered by most skeptics is that players who have several memorable hits in big games, especially early in their careers, acquire the mantle of "clutch hitter," and fans then unconsciously watch for such hits in the future from those players in particular, falsely reinforcing their beliefs over time. Despite the evidence, many people in baseball steadfastly believe in the idea of the clutch hitter. Derek Jeter once told Sports Illustrated after SI reported to the Yankees shortstop that many analysts deny clutch hitting as a skill, "You can take those stat guys and throw them out the window."

In many cases, a simple review of statistics debunks the notion that certain players are "clutch" performers. Baseball's Reggie Jackson has long been known as "Mr. October" because of his alleged ability to elevate his game in the post-season. A look at his post-season statistics is instructive. In 281 post-season at-bats, Jackson batted .278 with 18 homers and 48 RBIs. Extrapolated, that would mean 36 homers and 96 RBIs in a full season, which is approximately what we would expect from Jackson in a typical season. The numbers suggest that Reggie Jackson was not a "clutch" performer but a very solid player who performed about the same in the regular season and the post-season.

Similarly, despite his reputation as a "money pitcher," Jack Morris had a post-season E.R.A. of 3.80, almost exactly the same as his career 3.90 E.R.A. in the regular season. And Derek Jeter, supposedly a "clutch" hitter, has batted .314 in the post-season, almost the same as his career .317 average in the regular season.

Over the long run, most players tend to perform in the post-season almost exactly as they do in the regular season. But since most players do not get the opportunity to perform very often in the post-season, fans get a skewed, inaccurate picture of how players perform in "the clutch."

Yankee shortstop Jim Mason homered in his one and only at-bat in the post-season, while Barry Bonds has batted .245 in the post-season. Is Mason therefore a "clutch' hitter and Barry Bonds a "choker"? Or, more likely, has each man had too few post-season plate appearances to tell us anything useful?

Profiles in "clutchness"

While a select group of players carry the "clutch" label, the label is often the only thing they have in common. Instead of all clutch players being created equal, then, there seems to be a variety of different profiles that a player can fit, all while still being considered clutch:

In the 1982 NFC Championship Game, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joe Montana connected on a pass with receiver Dwight Clark to beat the Dallas Cowboys and advance to the Super Bowl. This catch was at the back of the end zone and is known as the "catch" to football fans. Joe Montana had numerous clutch moments in his career but this is his defining moment. Once again, clutchiness does not exist. Montana's throw was high, and Clark bailed him out of an incompletion.

In 1992, with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane winning by 2 points. Illinois State University's Todd Kagel was fouled with .5 seconds left in a Missouri Valley Conference basketball game at Tulsa. Tulsa coach Tubby Smith attempeted to "ice" the shooter with timeouts throughout, but Todd went on to sink all 3 free throws to win the game. This was an NCAA record for least amount of time on the clock and to make 3 free throws to win.

The Great Ones

Some athletes with alleged great focus and mental strength are notable for their clutch performances, even though their "regular season" (or the equivalent thereof) performance is equally good; for example, Tiger Woods in golf, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, James Looby, Robert Horry, Hakeem Olajuwon, Michael Redd, Chauncey Billups, John Havlicek, Steve Nash, Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade, Larry Bird, Steve Kerr, and Reggie Miller in basketball, Derek Jeter, and David Ortiz in baseball, and Pete Sampras (and, more recently, Roger Federer) in tennis, Romario, Zidane, (and more recently) Cristiano Ronaldo, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard in soccer, Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher in Formula 1 have all been labeled "clutch" during their careers for performing at a high level in high pressure situations, despite the fact that they (basically) always played that way. Former NBA great Jerry West had such a high reputation as a clutch player that he was given the nickname, "Mr. Clutch." In ice hockey, few players have had as much success in the regular season as goaltender Patrick Roy, but it was in the playoffs that Roy was at his best, winning 3 Conn Smythe Trophies (a feat no other player has accomplished), as well as leading his teams to 4 Stanley Cups and being the record holder for wins in post-seasons. Roy is considered by most as the best goaltender in ice hockey history because of his outstanding tenure in the postseason. Martin Brodeur is quickly gaining recognition as a great clutch player due to his consistency in both the regular season and post season. His performance in shootouts also speaks volumes for his abilities under pressure. NFL players like Joe Montana and Tom Brady, neither blessed with the athleticism and arm strength of "prototype" quarterbacks like Dan Marino, came up big when their respective teams, the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots, needed them in the Super Bowl or in any other big game. Neither Brady or Montana have put up the stats Marino (who lost his only Super Bowl appearance to Montana) did in his career, but they have 7 Super Bowl wins among them (Montana 4, Brady 3). "Possession" Wide Receivers such as Ricky Proehl, Keyshawn Johnson, Hines Ward, Troy Brown, and Antonio Gates are known to be "clutch." Kickers are commonly exalted for their clutch play as well: former Patriot (and as of this writing, current Indianapolis Colts kicker), Adam Vinatieri has been called the "greatest clutch kicker ever" on the basis of (essentially) five kicks: game-winning field goals in Super Bowl XXXVI and Super Bowl XXXVIII, a 47 yard game winning field goal in frigid weather against Tennessee in the 2004 playoffs, and two others in the 2002 Divisional Playoffs against the Oakland Raiders (in a major snowstorm, no less): one which tied the game, and another in overtime to seal a victory. However, those were not his only clutch kicks: Vinatieri kicked 20 game-winners for New England in his career.

The average ones who "raise their games" dramatically in the clutch

Still others have based their entire careers around the perception of being "clutch." "Big Shot Rob" Robert Horry (who has now won 7 NBA Championships) who is known more as a role player in the NBA, has always amazed during the playoffs: In 2002, while with the Los Angeles Lakers, Horry helped bury the Sacramento Kings by nailing an improbable buzzer-beater to win Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals; in 2005, he drilled 5 3-pointers in the 4th Quarter and overtime including one with 5.8 seconds left in the extra period of Game 5 of the NBA Finals, giving the San Antonio Spurs a crucial win over the Detroit Pistons.

At the same time, skeptics note that, over his career, Robert Horry has hit 36.3% of his 3-point shot attempts in the post-season. Horry's career 3-point shot percentage is almost exactly the same. Hence, while Horry has hit some very memorable shots in important games, he has not "elevated" his performance in the post-season. Rather, he has performed in the post-season just as he always has in the regular season.

Claude Lemieux seems to be ice hockey's version of Horry, winning four Stanley Cups with three different teams in the 1990s and early 2000s (including one Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP). Dwayne Roloson is another example of an average player who steps up his game during the playoffs with his performances in the 2006 Playoffs with the Edmonton Oilers and the 2003 Minnesota Wild. Golfer Andy North (at best a mediocre PGA Tour player) won only three career tournaments, but two of them were U.S. Opens. In 2003, golfers Ben Curtis and Shaun Micheel made Major Championships the site of their first PGA Tour win.

Citations

1. ^ Nate Silver, "Is David Ortiz a Clutch Hitter?" in Jonah Keri, Ed., Baseball Between the Numbers (New York: Basic Books, 2006): 14-34.

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