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The 2012 French presidential election is the next presidential election to be held in April and May 2012 (if no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round of voting). President Nicolas Sarkozy will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.
Contents |
Union for a Popular Movement
Openly Interested
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On July 2009 in front of UMP Members of parliament Sarkozy said "In the worst or at best, you still have it for seven and a half years with me!". MP Patrick Balkany and Elysée confirm that the possibility of a primary challenge is close to zero.
Hypothetical candidates
As of April 2009, no person has announced their intention to run for the UMP nomination in 2012. Incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy is serving his first term and will be eligible for re-election in 2012 barring death, incapacitation or resignation. If Sarkozy runs for re-election he will be unlikely to face opposition from within his party.
However only 29% of French voters favour the incumbent seeking a second term in 2012, 55% are opposed to Sarkozy running again.[3].
- Dominique de Villepin[4][5], Former Prime Minister of France, If he take the decision to run he will very likely run as Independent or Outside of UMP.
- Alain Juppé[6][7]: Former Prime Minister of France, He has indicated that he would be interested in running if Sarkozy does not however he considers his chances close to zero.
- Xavier Bertrand[8][9]: General Secretary of the UMP and Aisne MP. He has indicated that he would be interested in running if Sarkozy does not.
- Jean-François Copé[10][11]: President of the UMP in the National Assembly and Seine-et-Marne MP. He has also indicated he would be interested in running if Sarkozy does not. Copé has also openly said that he is interested by running in 2017[12].
Socialist Party
Openly Interested
Potential
 Former Prime Minister of France and Seine-Maritime MP Laurent Fabius[29][30] |
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 Former president of SOS Racisme Malek Boutih |
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Declined
Democratic Movement
Announced
none at this time
Potential
New Anticapitalist Party
Announced
none at this time
Potential
Declined
 New Anticapitalist Party spokesperson and de-facto leader Olivier Besancenot |
Besancenot has said he is not interested in running, though he is the face of his party, many say he will likely run.
National Front
Announced
none at this time
Potential
Declined
The historical Leader of the National Front Jean-Marie Le Pen and five-time presidential candidate (1974, 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007) has declined to run for President in 2012. In hypothetical run-off between Martine Aubry and Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen has indicated his preference for Martine Aubry[46][47].
The Greens
Declined
French Communist Party
Openly Interested
Left Party
Openly Interested
Opinion Polling
2007 candidates
These polls are not opinion polls for 2012 matchups, but hypothetical re-runs of the 2007 election.
| Candidate | Results 2007 |
Ifop 2/11/07[51] |
CSA 26/02/08[52] |
Ifop 26/04/09[53] |
OpinionWay 1/05/09[54] |
OpinionWay 19/06/09[55] |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) |
|
35% | 32% | 28% | 30% | 33% | |
| Ségolène Royal |
|
22% | 21% | 20% | 21% | 21% | |
| François Bayrou |
|
17% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 13% | |
| Jean-Marie Le Pen |
|
9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | |
| Olivier Besancenot |
|
7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | |
| 7 Other Candidates |
|
10% | 12% | 17% | 13% | 16% | |
Hypothetical candidates
| Candidate | Ifop 29/10/09[56] |
|
|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 28% | |
| Martine Aubry | 20% | |
| François Bayrou | 14% | |
| Marine Le Pen | 11% | |
| Olivier Besancenot | 9% | |
| Dominique de Villepin | 8% | |
| Cécile Duflot | 5% | |
| Marie-George Buffet | 3% | |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1% | |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1% | |
Runoff polls
| Candidate | CSA 26/02/08[57] |
Candidate | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 49% | 51% | Dominique Strauss-Kahn | ||
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 51% | 49% | François Bayrou | ||
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 53% | 47% | Martine Aubry | ||
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 53% | 47% | Bertrand Delanoë | ||
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 55% | 45% | Ségolène Royal | ||
| Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent) | 57% | 43% | François Hollande | ||
References
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/07/08/01002-20090708ARTFIG00007-sarkozy-se-voit-a-l-elysee-pour-encore-sept-ans-et-demi-.php
- ^ http://www.professionpolitique.info/article/08-07-09/sarkozy-un-pas-vers-2012
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2008/05/02/01011-20080502FILWWW00306-sarkozy-candidat-en-contre.php
- ^ http://www.rue89.com/2009/04/25/villepin-souhaite-fort-etre-candidat-en-2012
- ^ http://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/dominique-de-villepin
- ^ http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hwTVN-l_oYX0OCDLA1ZJzuvx0saA
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- ^ http://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/04/16/1498410_le-come-back-de-francois-hollande.html
- ^ http://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/170409/francois-hollande-s-echauffe-pour-2012
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2007/12/21/01002-20071221ARTFIG00323-dsk-laisse-la-porte-ouverte-pour-.php
- ^ http://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/03/26/1471866_strauss-kahn-recours-du-ps-en-2012-le-web-y-pense-deja.html
- ^ http://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/03/26/1471572_martine-aubry-candidate-declaree-pour-2012.html
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/04/11/01002-20090411ARTFIG00006-europeennes-un-test-electoral-perilleux-pour-aubry-.php
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- ^ http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/actualites/politique/20080210.OBS9790/laurent_fabius_nexclut_pas_de_se_presenter_a_la_preside.html
- ^ http://www.lapresidentielle.info/candidats/?candidat=jean-marc-ayrault
- ^ http://www.politique.net/2009012103-portrait-jean-marc-ayrault.htm
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- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/le-talk/2008/11/28/01021-20081128ARTFIG00511-peillon-des-candidats-pour-caches-derriere-aubry-.php
- ^ http://www.politique.net/2009030203-portrait-vincent-peillon.htm
- ^ http://www.metrofrance.com/infos/bayrou-les-europeennes-en-attendant-2012/midw!BIuAttmW4y316/
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/03/30/01002-20090330ARTFIG00312-francois-bayrou-pense-plus-que-jamais-a-2012-.php
- ^ http://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/marine-le-pen
- ^ http://tf1.lci.fr/infos/france/politique/0,,3611102,00-marine-pen-envisage-presenter-2012-.html
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- ^ http://www.lejdd.fr/cmc/politique/200837/le-pen-a-la-retraite-bientot_148372.html
- ^ http://tf1.lci.fr/infos/france/politique/0,,4257269,00-en-2012-le-pen-pencherait-pour-aubry-.html
- ^ http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2009-02-15/en-2012-le-pen-vote-aubry-plutot-que-sarkozy/917/0/317488
- ^ Cécile Amar, Cohn-Bendit : "Je ne serai pas candidat en 2012", Le Journal du dimanche, 23 august 2009.
- ^ S.C., « L’idée communiste a besoin d’un parti », L'Humanité, 10 september 2009.
- ^ S.C., « L’idée communiste a besoin d’un parti », L'Humanité, 10 september 2009.
- ^ http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/elections_6moisapres.pdf
- ^ http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2008/opi20080226-intentions-de-vote-a-l-election-presidentielle.htm
- ^ http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/2007deuxansapres.pdf
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/politoscope-2mai.pdf
- ^ http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionWay19juin.pdf
- ^ http://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/979-1-study_file.pdf
- ^ http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2009/opi20091105-rapports-de-force-au-second-tour-de-l-election-presidentielle.pdf
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