The Hubbert curve projects the rate of oil production over time, and is the main component of Hubbert peak theory. It was first proposed by geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the mid 1950s during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company.[1] The Hubbert curve has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources, as well as prominence in peak oil discussions.
Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to accurately predict that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.
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Shape
The Hubbert curve is a logistic distribution curve. It is not a normal distribution curve, which appears similar. Some differences are that the density of a normal distribution approaches zero faster than a logistic distribution does. The Hubbert curve is the derivative of the logistic function:
The graph consists of three key elements:
- an initial curve depicting a rise from zero production that then rises drastically as it follows the relatively steep slope of the logistic function;
- a "Hubbert peak," representing the maximum of the mathematical function; and
- the remaining curve as the function drops from the peak (when half of all reserves have been consumed) in the oil extraction rate and then follows a steep production decline.
Application
According to this model, the rate of oil production is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery.[1] The relative steepness of the projected rate of decline of the production curve is the main cause for concern about the economic and social impact of Peak Oil. This is because a steep drop in the production curve implies that global oil production will decline so rapidly that the world will not have enough time to develop sources of energy to replace the energy now used from oil.
Renewable resources
- Fisheries: At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization (Hubbert curve) on the whaling industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.[2] Another example is the cod of the North Sea.[3] The comparison of the cases of fisheries and of mineral extraction tells us that the human pressure on the environment is causing a wide range of resources to go through a depletion cycle which follows a Hubbert curve.
References
- ^ a b M. King Hubbert. "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels". Drilling and Production Practice (1956) American Petroleum Institute & Shell Development Co. Publication No. 95, See pp 9-11, 21-22.. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf.
- ^ Ugo Bardi and Leigh Yaxley. How General is the Hubbert Curve? Proceedings of the 4th ASPO Workshop, Lisbon 2005
- ^ Jean Laherrere. Multi-Hubbert Modeling. July, 1997.
See also
External links
- The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths And Weaknesses article by Jean Laherrère.
- The Hubbert Curve An explanation for beginners.
- Hubbert's Peak Mathematics Luís de Sousa
- M. King Hubbert Bibliography
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