(statistics) If x is a random variable with probability P and expectation E, then, for any positive number a and positive number n P(|x| ≥ a) ≤ E(|x|n/an).
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(statistics) If x is a random variable with probability P and expectation E, then, for any positive number a and positive number n P(|x| ≥ a) ≤ E(|x|n/an).
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| Wikipedia: Markov's inequality |
In probability theory, Markov's inequality gives an upper bound for the probability that a non-negative function of a random variable is greater than or equal to some positive constant. It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov, although it appeared earlier in the work of Pafnuty Chebyshev (Markov's teacher).
Markov's inequality (and other similar inequalities) relate probabilities to expectations, and provide (frequently) loose but still useful bounds for the cumulative distribution function of a random variable.
An example of an application of Markov's inequality is the fact that (assuming incomes are non-negative) no more than 1/5th of the population can have more than 5 times the average income.
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In the language of measure theory, Markov's inequality states that if (X,Σ,μ) is a measure space, f is a measurable extended real-valued function, and t > 0, then

For the special case where the space has measure 1 (i.e., it is a probability space), it can be restated as follows: if X is any random variable and a > 0, then

We separate the case in which the measure space is a probability space from the more general case because the probability case is more accessible for the general reader.
For any event E, let IE be the indicator random variable of E, that is, IE = 1 if E occurs and = 0 otherwise. Thus I(|X| ≥ a) = 1 if the event |X| ≥ a occurs, and I(|X| ≥ a) = 0 if |X| < a. Then, given a > 0,

which is clear if we consider the two possible values of I(|X| ≥ a). Either |X| < a and thus I(|X| ≥ a) = 0, or I(|X| ≥ a) = 1 and by the condition of I(|X| ≥ a), the inequality must be true.
Therefore

Now, using linearity of expectations, the left side of this inequality is the same as

Thus we have

and since a > 0, we can divide both sides by a.
For any measurable set A, let 1A be its indicator function, that is, 1A(x) = 1 if x ∈ A, and 0 otherwise. If At is defined as At = {x ∈ X| |f(x)| ≥ t}, then

Therefore

Now, note that the left side of this inequality is the same as

Thus we have

and since t > 0, both sides can be divided by t, obtaining

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