Moneyball

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Author	Michael M. Lewis
Country	United States
Language	English
Publisher	W.W. Norton & Company Inc.
Publication date	2003
Media type	Print (Hardcover)
Pages	208
ISBN	ISBN 0-393-05765-8
OCLC Number	51817522
Dewey Decimal	796.357/06/91
LC Classification	GV880 .L49 2003

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (ISBN 0-393-05765-8) is a book by Michael M. Lewis, published in 2003, about the Oakland Athletics baseball team and its general manager Billy Beane. Its focus is the team's modernized, analytical, sabermetric approach to assembling a competitive baseball team, despite Oakland's disadvantaged revenue situation.

Central premise of Moneyball

The central premise of Moneyball is that the collected wisdom of baseball insiders (including players, managers, coaches, scouts, and the front office) over the past century is subjective and often flawed. Statistics such as stolen bases, runs batted in, and batting average, typically used to gauge players, are relics of a 19th century view of the game and the statistics that were available at the time. The book argues that the Oakland A's' front office took advantage of more empirical gauges of player performance to field a team that could compete successfully against richer competitors in Major League Baseball.

Rigorous statistical analysis had demonstrated that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are better indicators of offensive success, and the A's became convinced that these qualities were cheaper to obtain on the open market than more historically valued qualities such as speed and contact. These observations often flew in the face of conventional baseball wisdom and the beliefs of many baseball scouts and executives.

By re-evaluating the strategies that produce wins on the field, the 2002 Athletics, with approximately $41 million in salary, are competitive with larger market teams such as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who spend over $100 million in payroll. Because of the team's smaller revenues, Oakland is forced to find players undervalued by the market, and their system for finding value in undervalued players has proven itself thus far.

Several themes Lewis explored in the book include: insiders vs. outsiders (established traditionalists vs. upstart proponents of Sabermetrics), the democratization of information causing a flattening of hierarchies, and the ruthless drive for efficiency that capitalism demands. The book also touches on Oakland's underlying economic need to stay ahead of the curve; as other teams begin mirroring Beane's strategies to evaluate offensive talent, diminishing the Athletics' advantage, Oakland begins looking for other undervalued baseball skills such as defensive capabilities.

Moneyball also touches onto the A's methods of prospect selection. Sabermetricians argue that a college baseball player's chance of MLB success is far and away higher than a traditional high school draft pick. Beane maintains that high draft picks spent on high school prospects, regardless of talent or physical potential as evaluated by traditional scouting, are riskier than if they were spent on more polished college players. Lewis cites A's minor leaguer Jeremy Bonderman, drafted out of high school in 2001 over Beane's objections, as but one example of precisely the type of draft pick Beane would avoid. Bonderman had all of the traditional "tools" that scouts look for, but thousands of such players have been signed by MLB organizations out of high school over the years and failed to develop. Lewis explores the A's approach to the 2002 MLB Draft, when the team had a nearly unprecedented run of early picks. The book documents Beane's often-tense discussions with his scouting staff (who favored traditional subjective evaluation of potential rather than objective sabermetrics) in preparation for the draft to the actual draft, which defied all expectations and was considered at the time a wildly successful (if unorthodox) effort by Beane.

In addition, Moneyball traces the history of the sabermetric movement back to such luminaries as Bill James (now a member of the Boston Red Sox front office) and Craig R. Wright. Lewis explores how James' seminal Baseball Abstract, an annual publication that was published from the late-1970s through the late-1980s, influenced many of the young, up-and-coming baseball minds that are now joining the ranks of baseball management.

Moneyball has made such an impact in professional baseball that the term itself has entered the lexicon of baseball. Teams which appear to value the concepts of sabermetrics are often said to be playing "Moneyball". Baseball traditionalists, in particular some scouts and media members, decry the sabermetric revolution and have disparaged Moneyball for emphasizing concepts of sabermetrics over more traditional methods of player evaluation. Nevertheless, the impact of Moneyball upon major league front offices is undeniable. In its wake, teams such as the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians^[1], and the Toronto Blue Jays have hired full-time Sabermetric analysts. Since the book's publication (and success), Lewis has discussed plans for a sequel to Moneyball called Underdogs, revisiting the players and their relative success several years into their careers.

People discussed in the book

Moneyball also covers the lives and careers of several baseball personalities. The central one is Billy Beane himself, whose failed playing career is contrasted with wildly optimistic predictions by scouts.

Players and people discussed in Moneyball:

Oakland Farm System:

• Barry Zito* – 2002 AL Cy Young winner, part of the "Big 3" with Mulder and Hudson. Allowed to sign with the San Francisco Giants for $126 million over 7 years.
• Mark Mulder* – part of the "Big 3" with Zito and Hudson, later traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.
• Tim Hudson* – part of the "Big 3" with Mulder and Zito, traded to the Atlanta Braves for Charles Thomas, Dan Meyer and Juan Cruz.
• Kirk Saarloos*
• John Baker* - traded to Florida Marlins in 2007, currently Marlins starting catcher.
• Joe Blanton* – traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008 for 3 minor leaguers.
• Jason Giambi* – 2000 AL MVP, signed with the New York Yankees in 2002 for $120 million over 7 years. After his Yankees contract expired at the end of the 2008 season, he returned to the A's as a free agent. He was released in August 2009 and picked up by the Colorado Rockies.
• Miguel Tejada* – 2002 AL MVP, signed with the Baltimore Orioles for $72 million over 6 years. Traded to the Houston Astros after the 2007 season.
• Eric Chavez* – 6-time AL Gold Glove winner.
• Jeremy Brown – outrighted to the minors by the A's in 2007;^[2] retired on February 15, 2008.
• Nick Swisher* – traded to Chicago White Sox after 2007 season; traded to the Yankees after 2008 season.
• Bobby Crosby* – 2004 AL Rookie of the Year
• Mark Teahen* – traded for Octavio Dotel in 2004, now with the Chicago White Sox.
• Jeremy Bonderman* – Traded to Detroit in 2002 along with Franklyn German and Carlos Pena for Jeff Weaver and a player to be named later. He eventually became one of the high school draft picks that paid off, developing into an MLB regular with the Tigers.

The Oakland Bullpen:

• Jason Isringhausen* – signed with the St. Louis Cardinals. Now with the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Billy Koch – 2002 AL Relief Pitcher of the Year.
• Chad Bradford* – traded to the Boston Red Sox for Jay Payton during the 2005 season; now with the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Jim Mecir – went to the Florida Marlins after the 2004 season, and retired at the end of the 2005 season.
• Ricardo Rincon*
• Mike Magnante

Players acquired by Beane in trades generally considered to be "steals":

• Cory Lidle – went to the Toronto Blue Jays after the 2002 season; after stints with three other teams, died in a plane crash after the 2006 season.
• Ray Durham*
• Ted Lilly*

Successful players initially valued more highly by Beane and the A's than by other MLB teams:

• Scott Hatteberg
• Chad Bradford*
• Kirk Saarloos*
• Kevin Youkilis* - All-Star and Gold Glove-winning first baseman for the Boston Red Sox.

Other Players Named:

• Prince Fielder* – Son of former slugger Cecil Fielder, drafted that year by the Milwaukee Brewers. Claimed by Beane to be "too fat" even for the A's. In 2007, he became the youngest player ever to hit 50 HRs in a single season, as well as the first player ever to join his father in the feat.
• B.J. Upton* - named as a "bad high school" draft pick. Upton has since developed into the starting center fielder for the Rays.
• Scott Kazmir* - cited as an example of teams' (in this case the New York Mets) foolishness in drafting high school pitchers because of the difficulty in projecting their future as opposed to college players. Kazmir developed into a starter for the Rays pitching staff before being traded to the Angels during the 2009 season.
• Jamie Moyer* – then with the Seattle Mariners; traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006, where he won his first World Series ring in 2008.
• Terrence Long
• Erik Hiljus
• David Justice
• Jeremy Giambi
• Alex Rodriguez* – Beane compares A-Rod's stats to those of Eric Chavez.
• Barry Bonds – Beane also compares his stats to those of Chavez.
• Greg Maddux
• Cliff Floyd*
• Alfonso Soriano*
• Jeff Francis*
• Zack Greinke* – Drafted by the Royals in 2002; AL Cy Young winner in 2009.

* player still active

Scouts, Management, and Journalists:

• Billy Beane
• Paul DePodesta – Assistant GM
• J.P. Ricciardi – Former Blue Jays GM who worked under Beane and DePodesta as Director of Player Personnel.
• Peter Gammons – Sportswriter
• Art Howe – Formerly Oakland's field manager
• Joe Morgan – Hall of Fame second baseman and ESPN broadcaster
• Steve Phillips - former New York Mets GM; fired in 2009 from ESPN after a sex scandal

Analysis of the 2002 Major League Baseball draft

Beane's list

Beane put together a list of twenty players they’d draft in a "perfect world", meaning if money was no object and they didn't have to compete with the other twenty-nine teams.

The list, and the teams who drafted them:
Pitchers

• Jeremy Guthrie - Cleveland, #22 (1st round)
• Joe Blanton - Oakland, #24 (1st round)
• Jeff Francis - Colorado, #9 (1st round)
• Luke Hagerty - Chicago Cubs, #32 (1st round)
• Ben Fritz - Oakland, #30 (1st round)
• Robert Brownlie - Chicago Cubs, #21 (1st round)
• Stephen Obenchain - Oakland, #37 (1st round)
• Bill Murphy - Oakland, #98 (3rd round)

Hitters

• Nick Swisher - Oakland, #18 (1st round)
• Russ Adams - Toronto, #14 (1st round)
• Khalil Greene - San Diego, #13 (1st round)
• John McCurdy - Oakland, #26 (1st round)
• Mark Teahen - Oakland, #39 (1st round)
• Jeremy Brown - Oakland, #35 (1st round)
• Steve Stanley - Oakland, #67 (2nd round)
• John Baker - Oakland, #128 (4th round)
• Mark Kiger - Oakland, #158 (5th round)
• Brian Stavisky - Oakland, #188 (6th round)
• Shaun Larkin - Cleveland, #274 (9th round)
• Brant Colamarino - Oakland, #218 (7th round)

Oakland's picks

• #18 - Nick Swisher - successful major leaguer, traded to Chicago White Sox after 2007, traded to New York Yankees after 2008
• #24 - Joe Blanton - successful major leaguer, traded to Philadelphia Phillies
• #26 - John McCurdy - out of professional baseball since 2006
• #30 - Ben Fritz - had Tommy John surgery, currently in minor leagues
• #35 - Jeremy Brown - has had small stints of time in the majors, retired prior to the 2008 season.
• #37 - Stephen Obenchain - retired after a lack of success at the A and AA levels
• #39 - Mark Teahen - successful major leaguer, traded to the Kansas City Royals and is currently with the Chicago White Sox
• #67 - Steve Stanley - topped out in AA for the A's
• #98 - Bill Murphy - traded three times and debuted with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2007
• #128 - John Baker - traded to the Florida Marlins and debuted and became the starting catcher in 2008.
• #158 - Mark Kiger - traded several times, now with the AA affiliate of the New York Mets (Binghamton Mets)
• #188 - Brian Stavisky - currently with the AA affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels
• #218 - Brant Colamarino - currently with the AA affiliate of the A's

Film

It was announced a movie is set to come out in 2011 based on the book. Actor Brad Pitt is attached to play Billy Beane, while comedian Demetri Martin is attached to play Paul DePodesta.^[3] Academy Award-winning screenwriter Steve Zaillian has been signed to write the script, and Steven Soderbergh will direct (replacing David Frankel).^[4] "I want you to not realize how much information is being thrown at you," says Soderbergh, when asked how he was going to make a film based on statistics entertaining. "We've found a couple of ideas on how to bust the form a bit, in order for all that information to reach you in a way that's a little oblique^[5]." Scott Hatteberg, David Justice, and Art Howe will play themselves in the movie.^[6]

On June 22, 2009, because of conflicts over a revised script by director Soderbergh, Sony put the movie on hold just days before it was scheduled to begin shooting.^[7] Soderbergh's script called for interviews of real-life players and other methods untraditional to sports movies. As a result, Soderbergh was let go.

See also

• Billy Beane
• Earnshaw Cook
• Sabermetrics

References

External links

• Majoring In Moneyball by John Manuel
• In Defense of Moneyball and Sabermetrics
• Billy Beane's Perfect Draft: A Baseball Revolution? by Richard van Zandt - guest column at BaseballEvolution.com (April 13, 2006)