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| Election campaign, next < 2003 2007 next |
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| Government | Opposition | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | Liberal/National coalition | |||
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| Nathan Rees | Barry O'Farrell | |||
| Leader since | 2008 | 2007 | ||
| Leader rating[1] | 31% | 36% | ||
| 2PP rating[2] | 45% | 55% | ||
| 2007 2PP result | 52.3% | 47.7% | ||
| Seats | 51 | 36 | ||
| Seats needed | 0 | 18 | ||
| Swing needed | 0.0% | 12.4% | ||
The next New South Wales state election will occur on 26 March 2011. The incumbent Australian Labor Party will be challenged by the opposition Liberal-National coalition. The lower house uses optional preference voting, with the upper house using single transferrable voting with optional group voting tickets.
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Legislative Assembly
The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Nathan Rees, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, are the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2007 include the Australian Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.
On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result the resignation of the Premier and two of his ministers, and an independent who left in order to contest a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history.[3] The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7% in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, [3] and a swing of 13% against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo.[3] Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1% delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Robert Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party preferred margin of 78.2% to 21.8%.
Current pendulum
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
Polling
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 1200-1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percent. The two-party preferred figure is calculated based on preference flows at the previous election.
| Date | Labor Rees |
Liberal O'Farrell |
|---|---|---|
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 31% | 36% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 32% | 33% |
| May – Jun 2009 | 33% | 32% |
| Mar – Apr 2009 | 33% | 31% |
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 34% | 29% |
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 30% | 33% |
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 35% | 28% |
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 32%1 | 39% |
| May – Jun 2008 | 32%1 | 39% |
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 36%1 | 33% |
| Jan – Mar 2008 | 37%1 | 30% |
| Pre 2007 election | 58%1 | 24%2 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Morris Iemma, 2 Peter Debnam |
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| Political parties | Two party preferred | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib/Nat | ||||
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 30% | 36% | 6% | 12% | 16% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 32% | 37% | 4% | 14% | 13% | 46% | 54% | |||
| May – Jun 2009 | 31% | 36% | 5% | 14% | 14% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2009 | 33% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 47% | 53% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 30% | 38% | 4% | 15% | 13% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 26% | 38% | 5% | 14% | 17% | 41% | 59% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 29% | 38% | 4% | 11% | 18% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 33% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 48% | 52% | |||
| May – Jun 2008 | 32% | 36% | 5% | 13% | 14% | 48% | 52% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 35% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 13% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jan – Mar 2008 | 34% | 34% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 50% | 50% | |||
| 2007 election | 39.0% | 26.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 52.3% | 47.7% | |||
| 21 – 22 Mar 2007 | 42% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 56.5% | 43.5% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. |
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See also
References
- ^ Newspoll: Better Premier, Sep-Oct 2009
- ^ Two Party Preferred, Sep-Oct 2009
- ^ a b c "A turning point for the Libs". The Daily Telegraph. 2008-10-20. http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24520701-5001021,00.html. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
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