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New York's 23rd congressional district special election, 2009

 
Wikipedia: New York's 23rd congressional district special election, 2009
2008 New York 2010
New York's 23rd congressional district special election, 2009
November 3, 2009 (2009-11-03)
Owens for Congress cropped.jpg No image.gif No image.gif
Nominee Bill Owens Doug Hoffman Dierdre Scozzafava*
Party Democratic Conservative Republican
Popular vote 68,963 65,787 6,903
Percentage 48.7% 46.4% 4.9%
New York District 23 109th US Congress.png

Incumbent Representative
John M. McHugh
Republican

Representative-elect
Bill Owens
Democratic

The 2009 special election for New York's 23rd congressional district was held on November 3, 2009, to select the successor to Republican John M. McHugh. McHugh was nominated to become United States Secretary of the Army on June 2, 2009 and resigned as representative of New York's 23rd congressional district on September 21, 2009 after being confirmed by the Senate.[1][2]

On September 29, 2009, New York Governor David Paterson issued a proclamation setting the special election to fill the vacancy for November 3, 2009, to coincide with the 2009 general election.[3][4] New York law does not provide for a primary election in cases of a special election for a vacant House seat. Instead, each party's nominee is chosen by that party's county leaders within the district.[5]

The Democratic Party and Working Families Party nominated businessman and attorney Bill Owens, and the Conservative Party of New York nominated businessman and accountant Doug Hoffman. The Republican Party and Independence Party nominated State Assembly member Dierdre Scozzafava, who withdrew from the race three days before the election[6] and endorsed the Democratic candidate. [7]

On Election Day, Owens appeared to defeat Hoffman with the margin initially reported as 49.0% to 45.5%. Scozzafava, whose name remained on the ballot, reportedly received 5.5% of the vote. Despite Hoffman's concession, the tallying of absentee ballots continued.

On November 20, 2009 it became mathematically impossible for Hoffman to overtake Owens.[8] On November 24, Hoffman ended his campaign stating "...it is with a heavy heart that we declare this election over. We will formally end this election and not ask for a recount."[9]

Contents

Background

New York's 23rd congressional district has historically been one of the most Republican districts in the United States. Most of the area in what is now NY-23 has not been represented by a Democrat since the 19th century. A large portion—including the largest city, Watertown—has not been represented by a Democrat since the 1850s. In parts of the district, the last non-Republican Representative was a Whig.[10]

Nine-term U.S. Representative McHugh was consistently elected with over 60% of the vote, including running unopposed in 2002. Also, George W. Bush carried the district in both the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. However, the area has been voting increasingly Democratic in recent elections. In the 2008 election for New York's 48th State Senate district (which lies within the 23rd Congressional district), Democrat Darrel Aubertine defeated heavily favored Republican Will Barclay, despite the district being represented by Republican James W. Wright for 18 years.[11] At the national level, Barack Obama defeated John McCain in the district 52%–47% in the 2008 presidential election.[12] Democrats have recently made gains at the state level as well; until recently, most of the district's living residents had never been represented by a Democrat above the county level.

Candidates

Republican

Seven Republicans announced their intentions to run, including Paul Maroun, aide to State Senator Betty Little; Dierdre Scozzafava, State Assemblywoman; Doug Hoffman, businessman and accountant; Ronald Uva, obstetrician and gynecologist; Joshua Lynch, Waddington native; Matthew Doheny, investment portfolio manager; and Gary Cooke, Essex County veterinarian.[13] Three other Republicans, Robert Taub, McHugh's chief of staff,[14] State Senator Joseph Griffo,[15] and State Assemblyman Will Barclay[16] were considered potential candidates, but all declined to run.

Scozzafava was designated as the Republican nominee and Hoffman later received the nomination of the Conservative Party of New York. On October 31, 2009, Scozzafava suspended her campaign[17] and, on November 1, 2009, endorsed the Democratic candidate for the seat.[18]

Democratic

State Senator Darrel Aubertine, whose state district covers much of the western half of the 23rd congressional district was the most widely rumored potential candidate, but he declined.[19] State Senator David Valesky initially said he was interested in running, but later decided against it.[14][20] It was reported that the Democratic party leaders hesitated to nominate either Valesky or Aubertine, since a victory by either would turn the Democrats' two-seat majority in the state Senate into a shaky majority of one.[21] Also declining to run was assemblywoman Addie Jenne Russell.

Other potential candidates included Andrew Bisselle, director of the YMCA Camp Dudley, a Republican who said his views mirrored those of Blue Dog Democrats;[22] Stuart Brody, former chairman of the Upstate Democratic Conference;[23] Steve Burke, St. Lawrence County resident;[24] Danny M. Francis, 1994 Democratic candidate;[25] Robert J. Johnson, 2004 and 2006 candidate for the seat;[23] Rudy Johnson, engineering consultant and retired United States Army veteran;[24] Brian S. McGrath, Manhattan attorney, originally from Lowville;[26] Mike Oot, 2008 Democratic candidate;[24] David Ryan, Franklin County resident;[24] and John T. Sullivan, Jr., former mayor of Oswego, New York.[27]

The chair of the New York Democratic Party stated that Scozzafava's husband had spoken with key local Democrats about the possibility of her switching to the Democratic Party before running for the seat.[28]

The party eventually selected Bill Owens, a military veteran and attorney from Plattsburgh.[23]

Conservative

Jim Kelly, a retired police officer and activist from Wilmington,[29] Jon Alvarez, a military serviceman from Hannibal who is currently serving in Afghanistan,[30] Salvatore Stassi, a police officer from Fulton,[31] and Doug Hoffman, an accountant from Lake Placid who had previously run for the Republican nomination, each made presentations to the Conservative Party of New York in August. The committee chose Doug Hoffman after the three other potential candidates said they would support him,[31] even though Hoffman did not live in the district.[32] Hoffman supports adding troops to Afghanistan and has stated that he may run for Congress in 2010.[33]

Hoffman had previously sought the Republican nomination. In July, when Scozzafava was nominated instead, he offered to help her. His email to her read: "Hi Dede, Congratulations and the best of luck in your candidacy. Let me know if there is anything I can do to help. Doug."[34] Shortly thereafter, however, he contacted Conservative Party leaders, seeking support for his own candidacy.[35] Hoffman later stated, "I never promised that I would support Dede Scozzafava."[34] One Republican leader said that Hoffman, while seeking the Republican nomination, had "repeatedly" pledged to support the nominee.[36]

Other parties

The chairman of the Independence Party of New York announced that the party would have cross-endorsed Aubertine had he run,[37] but with his decision not to run, the party instead backed Scozzafava.[38] After she suspended her campaign, the state chairman of the party endorsed Bill Owens, though several local chairmen instead endorsed Hoffman.[39] Scozzafava remained on the ballot on the Independence Party line (as well as the Republican line).

The Working Families Party backed Owens.[40] Under New York's fusion rule, Owens's votes on the Democratic line and on the Working Families line were combined into a single total.

Campaign

The race drew significant national attention because of the relatively large amount of support for a third-party candidate from the national conservative base. Fiscal and social conservative groups backed Hoffman's candidacy including the Club for Growth, the Susan B. Anthony List, and the National Organization for Marriage. Many notable Republicans, including former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson, endorsed Hoffman rather than the Republican candidate because they deemed Scozzafava insufficiently conservative and ideologically indistinguishable from the Democrat.[41][42]

An October 1, 2009, poll by the Sienna Research Institute put Hoffman in third place with 16% support, behind Scozzafava with 35% and Owens with 28%.[43] After an October 31 poll showed Scozzafava trailing both Hoffman and Owens by 15% and 16% respectively, with her poll numbers collapsing, Scozzafava suspended her campaign on October 31.[17][44] In response to the Scozzafava withdrawal, the Republican National Committee (RNC), which had strongly backed Scozzafava’s candidacy, issued a statement applauding her decision and announcing it was now supporting Hoffman.[45] On November 1, Scozzafava endorsed Democratic nominee Owens.[7]

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, while having initially supported the GOP nominee, remarked that he was "deeply upset" about her endorsement of Owens after Scozzafava's withdrawal from the race.[46] RNC Chairman Michael S. Steele questioned party leaders in upstate New York for using a committee process to select a congressional candidate. "Maybe you should have a primary the next time instead of having 11 guys in a room sit around and select your nominee," said Steele. [6]

Also on November 1, the "Democratic-leaning firm" Public Policy Polling (PPP)[47] released poll results indicating "Hoffman...at 51% to 34% for Bill Owens and 13% for Dede Scozzafava in the poll conducted over the weekend." Noting that the poll was conducted during "somewhat of a tumultuous polling weekend, first with Scozzafava’s withdrawal on Saturday and then with her endorsement of Owens on Sunday", PPP nonetheless remarked that "Hoffman led Owens by 18 points in interviews before Scozzafava’s withdrawal, 19 points in between her withdrawal and the announcement of her endorsement, and by 14 points subsequent to her encouraging people to vote for Owens."[48]

On November 2, one day before the election, Siena released the results of a new poll showing Hoffman leading Owens 41% to 36%.[49] Vice President Joe Biden appeared with Owens at a campaign rally in Watertown on November 3, while former U.S. Senator and 2008 presidential candidate Fred Thompson appeared with Hoffman.[50]

On Election Day, Hoffman reportedly received 45% of the vote but lost to Owens, who received 49% of the vote. With absentee ballots having yet to be tallied, the results of the election could not be officially certified by the State of New York, though Owens was sworn in based upon unofficial results.[51]

Police were called to at least two polling sites in St. Lawrence County following "overzealous electioneering" by supporters of Hoffman.[52] Later, Hoffman accused the Democratic Party of "bringing in ACORN" and trying to "steal this election away from the 23rd district", asserting that a campaign volunteer's tires had been slashed.[53] Anton Troianovski of The Wall Street Journal later quoted Captain Michael Branch of the Plattsburgh City Police Department as saying "This was not a tire slashing—this was some guy who drove over a bottle and cut his tire."[54]

Polling

Source Date Dierdre Scozzafava Bill Owens Doug Hoffman
Siena Research Institute[55] November 1, 2009 6% 36% 41%
Public Policy Polling[56] October 31, 2009 13% 34% 51%
Siena Research Institute[57] October 26–28, 2009 20% 36% 35%
Research 2000[58] October 26–28, 2009 21% 33% 32%
Neighborhood Research§[59] October 25-26, 2009 14% 29% 34%
Basswood Research[60] October 24-25, 2009 20% 27% 31%
Research 2000[61] October 19-21, 2009 30% 35% 23%
Siena Research Institute[62] October 11-13, 2009 29% 33% 23%
Siena Research Institute[63] September 29, 2009 35% 28% 16%
Basswood Research[64] September 17, 2009 20% 17% 17%
McLaughlin & Associates[65] September 9, 2009 30% 20% 19%

† Poll commissioned by Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman
‡ Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth, which endorses Doug Hoffman
§ Poll commissioned by the Minuteman PAC, which endorses Doug Hoffman

Endorsements

Dierdre Scozzafava

Changes After Withdrawal
No Known Change Endorsed Owens Endorsed Hoffman
Oswego County ATV Club[66] New York State United Teachers[67] House Minority Leader John Boehner[68]
The Wish List[69] Watertown Daily Times[70] Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee[71][72]
State Senator Betty Little[73] Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich[74][75]
Assemblywomen Teresa Sayward[73] Representative Jeb Hensarling, former Republican Study Committee Chair[76]
Assemblywoman Janet Duprey[73] New York State Young Republicans[77]
Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, former Assembly Minority Leader[78] Assemblyman Will Barclay[79][80]
Assemblyman Robert Oaks[79] National Rifle Association[81]
John Faso, former Assembly Minority Leader, 2002 comptroller candidate and 2006 gubernatorial candidate[82] Assemblyman David Townsend[79][83]
Daily Kos founder, Markos Moulitsas[84] Jeffrey Graham, mayor of Watertown[85]
US Senator Susan Collins[86]
Representative Ginny Brown-Waite[86]
Former Representative Tom Reynolds, former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee[87]
Representative Peter King[82]

Bill Owens

Doug Hoffman

Results

2009 NY-23 special congressional election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bill Owens 66,548
Working Families Bill Ownes 6,589
Total Bill Owens 73,137 48.3
Conservative Doug Hoffman 69,553 46.0
Republican Dede Scozzafava 7,260
Independence Dede Scozzafava 1,322
Total Dede Scozzafava 8,582 5.7
Majority 726
Turnout 161,868
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

Analysis

While some observers called the race "a referendum on President Barack Obama" and "a fight over the identity of the Republican Party"[154][155], others saw "a victory for populist conservatism". [156]

On Election Day, Owens appeared to defeat Hoffman with the margin initially reported as 49.0% to 45.5%. Scozzafava, whose name remained on the ballot, reportedly received 5.5% of the vote. Despite Hoffman's concession, an initial re-canvass resulted in a Hoffman gain of approximately 2000 votes before military and absentee ballots were further factored in. Poll inspectors reported Mr. Hoffman had inadvertently received zero votes in four districts.[157]

On November 18 in a letter hosted on his campaign website, Hoffman alleged, while providing no evidence to support his claims, that "ACORN, the unions and Democratic Party...tampered with the ballots of voters in NY-23."[158] Jerry O. Eaton, Jefferson County Republican elections commissioner, called Hoffman's assertion "absolutely false".[159] On November 19 in a story linked by the Hoffman campaign website, the Gouverneur Times alleged that a computer virus had "tainted" results and "cast doubt on the accuracy of the counts retrieved from any of the machines."[8] John Conklin, director of public information for the NY State Board of Elections, stated that "the article...unfortunately quoted a single word from a commissioner who mischaracterized the issue in question."[160]

With the tallying of absentee-ballots near completion, on November 20, 2009, Owens' lead over Hoffman surpassed the total number of absentee ballots left, making it mathematically impossible for Hoffman to win.[8] Spokesman Rob Ryan stated that the Hoffman campaign had not yet decided whether to formally concede — as Hoffman initially did on election night — or to challenge the special election in court. [161] On November 24, Hoffman ended his campaign stating "...it is with a heavy heart that we declare this election over. We will formally end this election and not ask for a recount."[9]

References

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  160. ^ Jude Seymour (20 November 2009). "State elections official: Gouverneur Times is "full of inaccurate information"". Watertown Daily Times (Watertown, NY). Archived from the original on 20 November 2009. http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091120/BLOGS09/911209972/-1//BLOGS09. Retrieved 20 November 2009. "John Conklin, the board's director of public information said: "There was no virus in the voting machines on Election Day in the 23rd District or anywhere else. The article is full of inaccurate information and unfortunately quoted a single word from a commissioner who mischaracterized the issue in question."" 
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Wikipedia. This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "New York's 23rd congressional district special election, 2009" Read more