Next New Zealand general election

Next New Zealand general election

2011 ← members No later than 24 January 2015

All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the New Zealand House of Representatives 61 seats are needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader John Key David Shearer Russel Norman / Metiria Turei Party National Labour Green Leader since 2006 2011 2006 / 2009 Leader's seat Helensville Mount Albert List Last election 59 seats, 47.31% 34 seats, 27.48% 14 seats, 11.06% Current seats 59 34 14 Seats needed 2 27 47   Leader Winston Peters Tariana Turia / Pita Sharples Hone Harawira Party NZ First Māori Mana Leader since 1993 (party foundation) 2004 (party foundation) 2011 (party foundation) Leader's seat List Te Tai Hauāuru / Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Tokerau Last election 8 seats, 6.59% 3 seats, 1.43% 1 seat, 1.08% Current seats 8 3 1 Seats needed 53 58 60   Leader John Banks Peter Dunne Party ACT United Future Leader since 2012 2002 (party foundation) Leader's seat Epsom Ōhariu Last election 1 seat, 1.07% 1 seat, 0.60% Current seats 1 1 Seats needed 60 60

Incumbent Prime Minister John Key National

The next New Zealand general election will be held to determine the membership of the 51st New Zealand Parliament. It will be held after the current 50th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires, whichever is earlier. The last realistic date for the next general election is Saturday 6 December 2014.

The election will elect 120 members to the New Zealand House of Representatives, with approximately 70 from single-member electorates and the remainder from party lists. Since 1996, New Zealand has used the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system, giving voters two votes: one for a political party and the other for their local electorate MP. Following the 2011 referendum on the voting system, in which the majority of voters voted to keep the MMP system, an independent review of the system by the Electoral Commission has been commissioned to suggest any alteration to the current workings of the system. Any recommended changes would most likely be put into place for the election.

Following the 2011 election, the New Zealand National Party, led by John Key, formed a minority government and continued the Fifth National Government for a second term. The main opponent is the New Zealand Labour Party, led by David Shearer.

Background

Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 26 November 2011.^[1]

In 1950, the legal requirement to hold elections on a Saturday was introduced,^[2] and this first applied to the 1951 election. Beginning with the 1957 election, a convention was formed to hold general elections on the last Saturday of November. This convention was upset by Robert Muldoon calling a snap election in 1984. It took until the 1999 election to get back towards the convention, only for Helen Clark to call an early election in 2002. By the 2011 election, the conventional 'last Saturday of November' was achieved again.^[3] If the convention is followed at the next general election, it will be held on 29 November 2014.

The table below shows election dates starting with the first election that was held on a Saturday in 1951:^[4]

Key

The Governor General must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament.^[5] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer."^[6] The writs for the 2011 election were returnable on Thursday 15 December 2011,^[7] but the return was delayed until Saturday 17 December 2011 due to a judicial recount of the Waitakere votes not being completed in time.^[8] As a result, the 50th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Wednesday 17 December 2014. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is Wednesday 24 December 2014.^[5] Except in some circumstances (such a recount or the death/incapacitation of an electorate candidate), the writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance, which will be Thursday 12 February 2015.^[9] Because polling day must be a Saturday^[9] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday 24 January 2015.

The Electoral Act stipulates that "polling day shall not be earlier than the 20th day after nomination day nor later than the 27th day after nomination day."^[9] This would place nomination day into the period of Sunday 28 December 2014 to Sunday 4 January 2015. This is New Zealand's key holiday season, and with the fact that Auckland Anniversary Day falls on Monday 26 January 2015, resulting in a long weekend for half the country's population,^[10] this all but precludes the 24 January 2015 election date. The last realistic date for a general election, taking the two week period for the counting of special votes into account, is thus Saturday 6 December 2014.

Election boundaries

The boundaries for the electorates will be redrawn following the 2013 census and Māori electoral option.^[11] The South Island must have 16 general electorates, with the number of North Island general and Māori electorates being the respective population in each group divided by one-sixteenth of the South Island general electorate population, within a tolerance of five percent. At the 2011 election, there were 47 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, totaling 70 electorates across the country.

The number of electorates is likely to increase as the North Island (and especially Auckland) grows faster than the South Island. Boundaries around Christchurch are likely to change markedly due to people moving within and away from the city following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

In the unlikely event a general election is called before the new boundaries are confirmed, then the existing 2008/2011 boundaries will be used.

MMP review

A referendum on the voting system was held in conjunction with the 2011 election, with 57.8% of voters voting to keep the existing Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system. The majority vote automatically triggered under the Electoral Referendum Act 2010 an independent review of the workings of the system by the Electoral Commission.

The Commission released a consultation paper in February 2012 calling for public submissions on ways to improve the MMP system, with the focus put on six areas: basis of eligibility for list seats (thresholds), by-election candidates, dual candidacy, order of candidates on party lists, overhang, and proportion of electorate seats to list seats. The Commission plans to release a proposal paper for consultation in August 2012, before the final report is due to be submitted to the Minister of Justice no later than 31 October 2012.^[12]

After the report is submitted, Parliament then would enact any changes to the system before the election, meaning there may be some differences to the system that had been used unchanged since it was introduced in 1994.

50th Parliament (2011 – present)

Following the 2011 general election, the National Party entered into confidence and supply agreements with ACT, the Māori Party and United Future to continue the Fifth National Government. These arrangements give the National-led government a majority of seven seats, with 64 on confidence-and-supply in the 121-seat Parliament.

The Labour, Green, New Zealand First and Mana parties are all in opposition, but only the Labour Party constitutes the formal Opposition.

At the 2011 election, the National Party gained 59 seats, the Labour Party 34 seats, the Green Party 14 seats, New Zealand First eight seats, Māori three seats, and Mana, ACT, and United Future gained one seat each. As of April 2012^[update], no changes to the election allocation have occurred.

Contesting parties and candidates

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission on Writ Day can contest the general election as a party, allowing it to submit a party list to contend the party vote, and have a party election expenses limit in addition to individual candidate limits. As of 15 May 2012 (2012 -05-15)^[update], thirteen political parties are registered and have the ability to contend the general election.^[13]

Opinion polling

References

v t e Elections and referendums in New Zealand General elections 1853 1855 1860–61 1866 1868 (Māori) 1871 1875–76 1879 1881 1884 1887 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1935 1938 1943 1946 1949 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Next (2014) Local elections 2004 2007 2010 2013 Referendums Alcohol licensing, 1896–1987 Gambling, 1949 Military training, 1949 Sale of Liquor, 1949 Parliamentary term, 1967 Sale of Liquor, 1967 Parliamentary term, 1990 Voting system, 1992 Voting system, 1993 Firefighters, 1995 Pensions, 1997 Justice, 1999 MP reduction, 1999 Smacking, 2009 Voting system, 2011 By-elections Supplementary elections