Next Tunisian general election

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Next Tunisian general election

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Tunisia

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Politics and government of
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The next Tunisian general election was originally scheduled to be held in 2014, but it was brought forward by the Tunisian Revolution which caused the ousting of President Ben Ali on 14 January 2011. It was later postponed indefinitely after it was decided to first hold a Constituent Assembly election on 23 October.

It is now scheduled to be held on or before 20 March 2013, depending on when constitution drafting is finished.[1]

Contents

Background

Protests in Tunisia began in December 2010 with riots in Sidi Bouzid after Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight in protest against the confiscation of his fruit and vegetable cart.[2] The riots then spread across the country and continued into 2011. Days after a curfew was imposed in the capital Tunis amid continuing conflagarations, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali left the country. Ben Ali's Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi briefly took over as acting president[3] before he handed power over to parliamentary speaker Fouad Mebazaa[4] after the head of Tunisia's Constitutional Court, Fethi Abdennadher, declared that Ghannouchi did not have right to take power and Mebazaa would have 60 days to organise a new general election.[5] For his part, Mebazaa said it was in the country's best interest to form a National Unity government.[6]

Days before leaving office, Ben Ali said he would not seek to change the constitution and run for a sixth term in office.[7][8]

Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Rally considered to change its name (retaining the "Constitution" part in some form) and run in the general election on an anti-Islamist platform.[9] However, the party was banned on 6 February 2011[10] and dissolved on 9 March 2011.[11]

The head of the Higher Political Reform Commission, prominent lawyer Yadh Ben Achour, warned that Tunisia risked anarchy if the transitional period is not handled with care, as institutions and mechanisms of the state are either in disarray or still tainted by links to Ben Ali's regime. Ben Achour also stated that the commission was unsure whether it would be better to reform the constitution or elect a constitutional assembly to write a completely new one, but that it had to be decided soon, as the public was growing tired of waiting. He also confirmed elections would not be held by 15 March 2011 as theoretically stipulated by the constitution, pointing to force majeure as legitimate grounds for taking longer until the election.[12]

The interim government announced on 25 February 2011, that elections would be held by mid-July "at the latest".[1] The constitution of Tunisia mandates an election to occur within 45 to 60 days of the Constitutional Council's declaration of the presidency being vacant,[13] but there were calls by the opposition to delay the elections and hold them only within six or seven months, with international supervision.[14]

After the formation of an interim government, over 70 political parties were formed in order to run for the elections. [15]

Dates

The general election has been postponed indefinitely as the president announced on 3 March that an election to a Constituent Assembly would be held on 24 July.[16] This election was itself postponed and finally took place on 23 October.[17]

In February 2012, plans were announced to hold presidential elections within 18 months, which would mean by August 2013.[18]

A preliminary date of 20 March 2013 or before was announced in March 2012.[1]

Presidential elections

Polls

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Undecided Ben Jafar
Ettakatol
Chebbi
PDP
Essebsi
Ind.
Ghannouchi
Ennahda
Hamdi
Aridha
Jebali
Ennahda
Marzouki
CPRInc.
Other
Emrhod[19] Mar 3–12, 2012 900 37.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.8% 6.2% 2.3% 6.2% 20.9% 4.9%
3C Etudes [20] March, 2012  ? 35% 6.0% - 6.8% 1.9% - 6.0% 23% 19.3%
3C Etudes[21] April, 2012  ? 34% 6.4% 2.0% 9.4% 2.4% - 5.0% 20% 22.8%
3C Etudes[22][23] May, 2012  ? 38% 5.4% 1.7% 8.1% 3% - 4.6% 16% 23.2%

Parliamentary elections

Polls

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Undecided Aridha CPR Ennahda Ettakatol PCOT PDP Other
2011 election Oct 23, 2011 51.97% turnout 6.74% 8.71% 37.04% 7.03% 1.57% 3.94% 34.97%
I Watch[24] Dec, 2011 15,000 6% 25% 52% - -
I Watch[25] Jan 9–14, 2012 15,000 5% 22% 56% 8% 9%
I Watch[26] Feb 2012 15,000 22% 52% 9% 11%
SIGMA[27] Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2012 1,002 49.1% 1.3% 9.1% 28.2% 5.2% 1.0% 2.2% 4.0%
I Watch[28][29] Mar 2012 16,181 5th 22% 51% 4th - 3rd
FSSA[30] May 2012 2,430 45% 4.1% 4.3% 29.0% - - -
SIGMA[31] May, 2012 1,000 - - 6.2% 37.5% 7.5% - - -
I Watch[32] Apr 2012 15,000 9% 20% 48% 10% - 13%

References

  1. ^ a b c http://allafrica.com/stories/201203250175.html
  2. ^ "Tunisian who sparked rare protests dies: relatives -Reuters". Af.reuters.com. 2011-01-05. http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE70408420110105. Retrieved 2011-01-14. 
  3. ^ Ganley, Elaine. "NewsTimes.com - The Latest". Hosted.ap.org. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_TUNISIA_RIOTS?SITE=CTDAN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT. Retrieved 2011-01-14. 
  4. ^ David D. Kirkpatrick (15 January 2011). "New Change of Power Raises Questions in Tunisia". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/africa/16tunis.html. 
  5. ^ "Unrest engulfs Tunisia after president flees". http://apnews.myway.com//article/20110115/D9KOQ2B01.html. 
  6. ^ "Tunisia's interim president backs a unity govt". http://apnews.myway.com//article/20110115/D9KOQT000.html. 
  7. ^ "Tunisia President Ben Ali 'will not seek new term'". BBC News. 13 January 2011 Last updated at 15:35 ET. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12187084. 
  8. ^ Tarek Amara, Christian Lowe; Editing by Maria Golovnina (Thu Jan 13, 2011 2:24pm EST). "Tunisian president rules out new mandate". Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70C5J920110113. 
  9. ^ Chmaytelli, Maher; Laghmari, Jihen (3 February 2011). "Tunisia's Ex-Ruling Party Banks on Islamists Fear to Stay Afloat". Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/tunisia-s-ex-ruling-party-banks-on-islamists-fear-to-stay-afloat.html. 
  10. ^ "Tunisia suspends Ben Ali's RCD party". bbc.co.uk (BBC News). 6 February 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12378006. Retrieved 8 October 2011. 
  11. ^ "Court dissolves Ben Ali's RCD party". english.rfi.fr. RFI. 9 March 2011. http://www.english.rfi.fr/africa/20110309-court-dissolves-ben-alis-rdc-party. Retrieved 8 October 2011. 
  12. ^ Fuller, Thomas (21 February 2011). "Tunisia Reform Leader Warns of Possible Anarchy". The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/africa/22tunisia.html. 
  13. ^ "Tunisia swears in interim leader". al Jazeera. 2011-01-15. Archived from the original on 2011-01-15. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/201111513513854222.html. Retrieved 2011-01-15. 
  14. ^ Trois chefs de l'opposition dans le gouvernement tunisien, actualité Reuters : Le Point
  15. ^ "Tunisia Seen As Laboratory For Arab Democracy". NPR. May 9, 2011. http://www.npr.org/2011/05/09/136137821/after-uprisings-tunisia-a-laboratory-for-democracy. Retrieved May 10, 2011. 
  16. ^ http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n243650
  17. ^ Mandraud, Isabelle (14 June 2011). "Tunisian election delayed until October". guardian.co.uk (London: The Guardian). http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/14/tunisian-election-delayed-again-mandraud. Retrieved 8 October 2011. 
  18. ^ http://www.tunisia-live.net/2012/02/03/tunisian-prime-minister-declares-interim-governments-intention-to-hold-presidential-elections-in-18-months/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tunisia-live%2FyMtB+%28Tunisia+Live%29
  19. ^ http://directinfo.webmanagercenter.com/2012/03/27/sondage-20-9-des-tunisiens-font-toujours-confiance-a-marzouki/
  20. ^ http://dl.dropbox.com/u/45511845/120415%201240%20R%C3%A9sultats%20Baro%20Politique%20vague%204%20-%20Avril%202012%20HB%20HG%20HB%20HG.pdf
  21. ^ http://dl.dropbox.com/u/45511845/120415%201240%20R%C3%A9sultats%20Baro%20Politique%20vague%204%20-%20Avril%202012%20HB%20HG%20HB%20HG.pdf
  22. ^ http://www.africanmanager.com/detail_article.php?art_id=140074
  23. ^ http://www.scribd.com/doc/92256705/120503-1828-Resultats-Baro-Politique-vague-5-Mai-2012-HB-HG-HB-HG-1
  24. ^ http://maghreb.minutebuzz.com/2012/02/20/sondage-tunisiens-politique-economie-avis/
  25. ^ http://www.tunisia-live.net/2012/02/18/latest-poll-shows-tunisians-want-economy-put-first/
  26. ^ http://www.tunisia-live.net/2012/03/23/new-survey-points-to-fluctuations-in-popularity-of-tunisian-political-parties-and-leaders/
  27. ^ http://www.babnet.net/cadredetail-46716.asp
  28. ^ http://www.tap.info.tn/en/en/politics/13509-survey-scrutinises-tunisians-priorities-and-their-trust-in-three-presidents-and-parties.html
  29. ^ http://www.turess.com/fr/africanmanagerfr/140663
  30. ^ http://www.kapitalis.com/fokus/62-national/9667-selon-un-sondage-75-des-tunisiens-sont-confiants-en-lavenir.html
  31. ^ http://www.newsoftunisia.com/politique/sondage-37-des-tunisiens-sont-pro-ennahdha/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sondage-37-des-tunisiens-sont-pro-ennahdha
  32. ^ http://www.turess.com/fr/africanmanagerfr/140663

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