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Next United Kingdom general election

 
Wikipedia: Next United Kingdom general election
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United Kingdom general election
All 650 seats of the House of Commons
on or before 3 June 2010
Gordon Brown Davos 2008 crop.jpg Davidcameron.jpg Nick Clegg - Crop.jpg
Leader Gordon Brown David Cameron Nick Clegg
Party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat
Leader since 24 June 2007 6 December 2005 18 December 2007
Leader's seat Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Witney Sheffield Hallam
Last election 356 seats, 35.3% 198 seats, 32.3% 62 seats, 22.1%
Seats needed –22 +118 +260
1997 election • MPs
2001 election • MPs
2005 election • MPs
Next election

The next United Kingdom general election will take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom for seats in the House of Commons on or before Thursday 3 June 2010.

The number of seats will rise from 646 to 650 under the proposals made by the Boundary Commissions for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the Scottish Boundary Commission having made its last review prior to the 2005 general election.[1][2]

The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to restore support lost since 1997.[3] The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics after losses in the 1990s, and to replace Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats hope to make gains from both sides; although they too would ideally wish to form a government, their more realistic ambition is to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. In 2009, it was reported that senior civil servants are to meet with the Liberal Democrats to discuss their policies, an indication of how seriously the prospect of a hung parliament is being taken.[4] The Scottish National Party, encouraged by their victory in the 2007 Scottish parliament elections, have set themselves a target of 20 MPs and will also be hoping to find themselves in a balance of power position.[5] Smaller parties who have had successes at local elections and the 2009 European elections (United Kingdom Independence Party, Green Party, etc.) will look to extend their representation to seats in the House of Commons. The Jury Team, launched in March 2009, intends to increase the number of Independent politicians in the House of Commons by backing suitable candidates in the election.

Despite extensive media speculation in 2007 about a possible snap election, the Government decided against calling a general election during 2007 or 2008.

Contents

Date of the election

Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1715 as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, the next general election must be held on or before Thursday 3 June 2010,[6] barring exceptional circumstances. In recent times, and certainly since the enactment of the Septennial Act 1715, Parliament has not been allowed to expire. The present parliament which first met on 11 May 2005 will expire at midnight on 10 May 2010.[7][8] The previous general election in the UK was held on 5 May 2005. Assuming a proclamation summoning a new Parliament is issued 10 May, the date of the general election would be 3 June 2010.[8]

The next general election will most probably be called following the dissolution of the current Parliament. Parliament is dissolved by the Monarch, usually at the request of the Prime Minister. Dissolution can occur at any time within five years of the start of that parliament. However, since the Parliamentary term was set at five years, parliaments have most often sat for four years, with fresh elections being called at the start of the fifth year.[9] The local elections for 2010 have been firmly scheduled for 6 May, and some commentators have suggested that the general election may also be held on this day.[10]

In November 2006 it was reported that activists for the governing Labour Party were being warned to prepare for a general election as early as 2008.[11] In June 2007, in his speech accepting his appointment as leader of the Labour Party, Gordon Brown declared that he was appointing a member of the government as election co-ordinator. This was considered by some suggestive that he was intending to call an election earlier than expected.[12] After much media speculation in early October 2007 that an election would be called for first week of November 2007,[13] Gordon Brown announced in an interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr that he would not call an election 'in the next period', thought to mean 2007 or 2008.[14] This announcement followed an opinion poll of marginal constituencies targeted by the Conservatives, which indicated that an election could result in the loss of the overall Labour majority.[15] Studies of the impact of the new boundaries suggest that if votes were to be cast in the same number and distribution as at the 2005 general election then Labour's majority would be reduced to about 42 seats, and even at the last general election a redistribution of several thousand votes would have been enough under the old boundaries for Labour to have lost its overall majority.

Leadership of the main parties

See also: Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2005, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006, Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007, and Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2007

David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005 replacing Michael Howard. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party on 27 June 2007. Nick Clegg was elected as leader of the Liberal Democrats in December 2007 succeeding to Sir Menzies Campbell who resigned on 15 October 2007 after having replaced Charles Kennedy who had himself resigned in March 2006. The last time all three main parties went into a general election with new leaders was in the 1979 election, when James Callaghan as Labour leader, Margaret Thatcher for the Conservatives, and David Steel with the then Liberal Party, took to the polls.

The leadership of each party may have implications beyond party popularity at the polls, especially if a hung parliament requires the formation of a coalition or minority government. Whereas Tony Blair courted the Liberal Democrats for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, Gordon Brown is thought[by whom?] to be more resistant to co-operation with the Liberal Democrats.[citation needed] David Cameron is attempting to make a pitch towards what is referred to as Middle England — the people who it is said have abandoned the Conservative Party since 1992 for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.[16]

Nick Clegg[17] and Menzies Campbell[18] have continued the position of Charles Kennedy of not being prepared to form a coalition with either main party and of voting against any Queen's Speech unless there was an unambiguous commitment in it to introduce proportional representation.

Other parties

See also: List of political parties in the United Kingdom

There is one independent member of Parliament, Dai Davies, elected in a by-election in succession to fellow independent Peter Law, who died in April 2006. Since the last election, Clare Short and Bob Wareing have resigned the Labour whip, with Short planning to stand down at the next election and Wareing planning to contest his seat as an independent, having been deselected by the local Constituency Labour Party. Three MPs elected as Conservative in 2005 are no longer under the Conservative whip, of which only one, Bob Spink, plans to stand at the next election, after having been deselected and defecting to the UK Independence Party[19] (although he does not sit as a UKIP MP and now claims never to have joined UKIP[20]). It is possible that the number of independent MPs will continue to increase as members are expelled or resign.

Within Northern Ireland, none of the main parties from Great Britain has any representation. At the 2005 election, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen) won five seats whilst the Democratic Unionist Party won nine. This continued their expansion at the expense of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (3 seats) and the Ulster Unionist Party (1 seat) respectively. This shift continued trends in both the nationalist and unionist communities that had been seen in the previous two elections, and was also replicated in the 2007 elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In 2008, the DUP announced their intention to sit with the Conservative Party in parliament, while in 2009 the UUP and Conservative Party announced they had formed an electoral alliance.

Other parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru from Scotland and Wales respectively; and RESPECT The Unity Coalition and Health Concern, each of which hold one Parliamentary seat from England. Since that election, the Scottish National Party have been victors in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, whilst the Labour Party remained the largest party in the Welsh Assembly, though Plaid Cymru increased their share of the vote.

Many constituencies will be contested by other, smaller parties. Parties that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005 but have seats in the devolved assemblies or European Parliament include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the British National Party, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), and the Green parties in the UK: the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Green Party, and the Green Party in Northern Ireland. UKIP's leader, Roger Knapman, retired as leader on his term ending in 2006 with the leadership election on 12 September 2006 electing Nigel Farage as his replacement. With the defection of former Conservative MP Bob Spink to the party on 22 April 2008, UKIP gained its first seat in the House of Commons, though Spink has now become an independent member.[21] The Green Party of England and Wales has voted to have a position of leader for the first time; the first leadership election was won by Caroline Lucas, Prospective Parliamentary Candidate to contest the constituency of Brighton Pavilion.

The Jury Team, launched in March 2009 and described as a "non-party party", is an umbrella organisation seeking to increase the number of Independent politicians in the UK.[22] Citing a YouGov poll that suggests that 55% of electors would vote for an Independent candidate if they thought they had a realistic chance of being elected, Jury Team intends "break the traditional party leaderships' control over the political process" by giving any member of the public a chance to stand as an Independent in the next general election.[23]

Opinion polls, and analysis of votes in relation to numbers of seats

Main article: Opinion polling in the next United Kingdom general election
See also: Exit poll, Opinion poll, Spoiler effect, Tactical voting, Voting system, and Wasted vote

The fact that each MP is elected separately makes it impossible to directly interpret national shares of the vote into a clear outcome in United Kingdom general elections as it is unknown for all constituencies in a general election to exactly reflect national trends. However, analysis of previous elections shows that approximate forecasting of results can be achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system is used by much of the media in the UK to assess electoral fortunes.

Due to the boundary changes which will come into effect at the election, the benchmarks for relating national vote share to the outcome in seats have been recalculated by a team led by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Figures in brackets represents the headline lead. Note that these figures do not take into account the performance of the Liberal Democrats, minor or nationalist parties, Independent candidates, or localised effects caused by a change in the distribution of the Labour and Conservative vote and that of other parties.

Uniform national swing Result
Any to Lab Increased Labour majority in Parliament (Labour lead greater than 3%)
Up to 1.6% to Con Reduced Labour majority (Labour lead of up to 3%)
1.6% – 4.3% to Con Labour hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 6%)
4.3% – 6.9% Con Conservative hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 9%)
More than 6.9% to Con Conservative overall majority (A Conservative lead of over 9%)

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence in the government.

The first past the post nature of the system may not reflect the national popular vote shares across the parties, although sometimes individual parties achieve similar shares of votes and seats. In addition, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote nationwide that ends up the largest grouping of MPs, and since 1935 no single party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a UK general election. With a widely distributed vote not concentrated in particular areas, a party is at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with very strong localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

Television debates

Main article: United Kingdom general election debates, 2009-2010

In September 2009, Sky News started to campaign for televised debates between the leaders of the three main parties. David Cameron (Conservative Party), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats) and Prime Minister Gordon Brown have agreed to take part.[24] If they do take place, the debates will be the first of their kind in the UK.

MPs not seeking re-election

In all, 72 Labour MPs, 28 Conservatives, seven Liberal Democrats, two independents, one Independent Conservative and one member each from the Democratic Unionist Party, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party have announced that they will not be contesting the next election.

Labour

Barred by Labour from being official candidates

Labour's National Executive Committee barred five MPs from standing as official Labour Party candidates at the next general election in the wake of the United Kingdom Parliamentary expenses scandal.[99][100] However, they could stand as independent candidates. Three of these MPs, David Chaytor, Margaret Moran and Elliot Morley, have stated that they will be standing down as MPs. Another, Ian Gibson, resigned his seat, causing a by-election in Norwich North that was won by the Conservatives. The fifth, Jim Devine, has not yet stated whether he plans to stand down as an MP, resign, or stand as an independent for re-election as MP for Livingston.[101][102]

Conservative

Amidst the expenses scandal, Julie Kirkbride (Conservative MP for Bromsgrove) announced on 28 May 2009 that she would stand down.[130] However on 5 November it was reported that she had told the Executive Committee of Bromsgrove Conservative Association that she wished to be considered as their candidate. The ConservativeHome website claimed that Conservative Central Headquarters wished the Association to hold an all-postal open primary to select their candidate, with Kirkbride being allowed to stand for the selection.[131]

Liberal Democrats

Other parties

Boundary changes

Main article: Boundary change recommendations for the next UK general election
The notional results of the 2005 election, if they had taken place with the new boundaries.

The current list of constituencies likely to be used in the next United Kingdom general election (in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) is in Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.

The four national Boundary Commissions are required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in its part of the United Kingdom every eight to twelve years to ensure the size and composition of constituencies are as fair as possible.

Scotland saw its most recent large-scale review completed in 2004, so the boundaries used in the 2005 general election in Scotland will still apply at the next UK general election; England, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to have their first boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies since the 1997 general election.

Constituencies in Wales were reviewed by the Boundary Commission for Wales. The recommendations were laid before Parliament on 14 December 2005 and approved on 11 April 2006.[148] The new constituencies will apply from the next general election.

In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd: Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than their counterparts in England.

The Boundary Commission for England completed and sent its recommendations to the Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs on 31 October 2006. The changes, which included four additional seats, were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 13 June 2007.[149]

In 2006 the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission proposed minor changes to its eastern constituencies. The changes were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 11 June 2008.[150] For the first time, these changes include the splitting of an electoral ward between two constituencies.

Based on studies using ward by ward data from local elections and the 2005 general election, it is believed that boundary changes implemented for the expected general election notionally reduce the number of Labour seats by nine, given that there are to be four more seats in the next parliament this notionally reduces Labour's majority from 66 to 44.

Marginal seats for main parties

Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is "The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.[151] The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.[152] The various estimates differ in detail.

Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where the party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election. A complete list for each party is currently being compiled in party order starting with the Conservatives which can be found here, with the top 50 Labour here, top 50 Liberal Democrat and top 25 Plaid and SNP targets to follow.

N.B. The "Winning Party" is notional (except in the case of Scottish constituencies and Islington South and Finsbury), calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat, and may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 general election.

Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Sittingbourne and Sheppey Conservative 0.03
2 Clwyd West Conservative 0.07
3 Hemel Hempstead Conservative 0.18
4 Kettering Conservative 0.20
5 North East Somerset Conservative 0.23
6 Finchley and Golders Green Conservative 0.35
7 Shipley Conservative 0.48
8 Dundee East SNP 0.48
9 Rochester and Strood Conservative 0.57
10 Wellingborough Conservative 0.62

Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 0.021
2 Crawley Labour 0.04
3 York Outer Liberal Democrat 0.22
4 Romsey and Southampton North Liberal Democrat 0.23
5 Harlow Labour 0.29
6 Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 0.33
7 Croydon Central Labour 0.36
8 Portsmouth North Labour 0.38
9 Battersea Labour 0.41
10 Hove Labour 0.50

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Guildford Conservative 0.09
2 Solihull Conservative 0.12
3 Rochdale Labour 0.17
4 Oxford East Labour 0.37
5 Edinburgh South Labour 0.47
6 Hampstead and Kilburn Labour 0.57
7 Eastbourne Conservative 0.70
8 Islington South and Finsbury Labour 0.78
9 Watford Labour 1.17
10 Ealing Central and Acton Labour 1.37

Scottish National Party targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Ochil and South Perthshire Labour 0.74
2 Dundee West Labour 7.29

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Ceredigion Liberal Democrat 0.31
2 Arfon Labour 0.91
3 Ynys Môn Labour 1.75

Northern Irish targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Challenging party Swing to gain
1 Belfast South Social Democratic and Labour Democratic Unionist 1.93
2 South Antrim Democratic Unionist Ulster Unionist 4.54
3 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin Democratic Unionist 4.70
4 Belfast South Social Democratic and Labour Ulster Unionist 4.80

Notes

  1. ^ "Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland" (PDF). http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/pubs/finalrecommendations.pdf. 
  2. ^ "Final Northern Ireland boundary change recommendations". http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/gboun07.htm. 
  3. ^ "Brown would 'renew' Labour Party". BBC News Online. 2007-01-05. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6236315.stm. 
  4. ^ Whitehall prepares for hung parliament with Lib Dem talks The Guardian, 1 Jan 2009
  5. ^ "Salmond wants Westminster to 'dance to a Scottish jig' as he targets 20 seats". The Scotsman. 2008-04-21. http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Salmond-wants-Westminster-to-39dance.4001458.jp. 
  6. ^ UK Electoral Commission: UK Parliamentary general election
  7. ^ Technically, Parliament could vote to extend the lifetime of the current term beyond 5 years. This cannot be done by the House of Commons alone; it must be additionally approved by the House of Lords (the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949 may not be utilised in this case) and by the Queen-in-Parliament. Since 1911, extension of the maximum term of Parliaments has only occurred during the First and Second World Wars.
  8. ^ a b "Research Paper 07/31: Election Timetables". House of Commons Library. http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2007/rp07-031.pdf. 
  9. ^ "Election: How It Works — The General Election process". The Scotsman. 2005-04-05. http://election.scotsman.com/howitworks.cfm. 
  10. ^ "The most likely date for the next election is May 6th 2010 - Coffee House". The Spectator. 2009-05-01. http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3581436/the-most-likely-date-for-the-next-election-is-may-6th-2010.thtml. Retrieved 2009-07-13. 
  11. ^ "Labour 'warns of early election'". BBC News Online. 2006-12-12-08. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6220352.stm. 
  12. ^ Philip Webster (2007-06-25). "Election set for 2008". The Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1811255.ece. 
  13. ^ "How election fever developed". BBC News Online. 2007-10-06. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7032099.stm. 
  14. ^ "Brown rules out autumn election". BBC News Online. 2007-10-06. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7031749.stm. 
  15. ^ "Tory marginals poll". News of the World. 2007-10-06. http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/notw_poll.pdf. 
  16. ^ "Brown to stake all on Middle England". The Times. 2006-09-25. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2373790,00.html. 
  17. ^ "Clegg's terms for deal in hung parliament". Guardian Unlimited. 2008-03-10. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/10/liberaldemocrats.nickclegg. 
  18. ^ "Liberal Democrats under my leadership would vote against any Queens Speech without a clear and unambiguous commitment for Proportional Representation". mingcampbell.co.uk. 2006-02-15. http://www.mingcampbell.org.uk/ccarchive/2006/02/15/liberal-democrats-under-my-leadership-would-vote-against-any-queens-speech-without-a-clear-and-unambiguous-commitment-for-proportional-representation/. 
  19. ^ "Ex-Tory MP defects to UKIP]". BBC News. 2008-04-22. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7360118.stm. 
  20. ^ "Tory? UKIP? Now I'm just an inde says MP Bob]". Echo News. 2009-03-07. http://www.echo-news.co.uk/search/4179128.Tory__UKIP__Now_I_m_just_an_inde_says_MP_Bob/. 
  21. ^ "Tory rebel Bob Spink becomes Ukip's first MP". Daily Telegraph. 2008-04-22. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/news/2008/04/22/nukip122.xml. 
  22. ^ Gourlay, Chris (2009-03-08). "Tycoon finances ‘X Factor’ party to clean up politics". The Sunday Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5864530.ece. Retrieved 2009-05-10. 
  23. ^ Kirkup, James (2009-03-08). "Sir Paul Judge starts 'Jury Team' campaign for more independent MPs". The Daily Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/4957060/Sir-Paul-Judge-starts-Jury-Team-campaign-for-more-independent-MPs.html. Retrieved 2009-05-10. 
  24. ^ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125458139648761865.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
  25. ^ a b "Two North East MPs standing down". BBC News Online. 2009-07-04. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/tyne/8134398.stm. 
  26. ^ "John Austin MP to retire". ePolitix. 2008-07-31. http://www.epolitix.com/mpwebsites/mppressreleases/mppressreleasedetails/newsarticle/john-austin-mp-to-retire///mpsite/10763/?no_cache=1. 
  27. ^ "Battle's war is finally over". Yorkshire Evening Post. 2006-10-23. http://www.leedstoday.net/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=39&ArticleID=1837163. 
  28. ^ "Wetherby MP to stand down at next election". Wetherby News. 2009-04-23. http://www.wetherbynews.co.uk/wetherby/Wetherby-MP-to-stand-down.5199086.jp. Retrieved 2009-04-24. 
  29. ^ "Caborn to stand down as city MP". BBC News Online. 2007-09-13. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/south_yorkshire/6993935.stm. 
  30. ^ "MP quits to back climate campaign". BBC News Online. 2007-01-30. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_yorkshire/6312339.stm. 
  31. ^ "Mortgage claim MP will stand down". BBC News Online. 2009-05-21. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8062408.stm. 
  32. ^ "Labour MP Chaytor to stand down". BBC News Online. 2009-06-02. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8078558.stm. 
  33. ^ "MP Clapham Quit Shock". Sheffield Star. 2006-11-14. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-181728766.html. 
  34. ^ "MP to quit over expenses 'stress'". BBC News Online. 2009-06-30. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8126949.stm. 
  35. ^ "No surprise at party deselection". The Northern Echo. 2008-01-14. http://www.thisisthenortheast.co.uk/display.var.1962733.0.no_surprise_at_party_deselection.php. 
  36. ^ "Newcastle Labour MP Jim Cousins to step down". Evening Chronicle. 2009-06-09. http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-evening-chronicle/2009/06/09/newcastle-labour-mp-jim-cousins-to-step-down-72703-23823407/. 
  37. ^ "MP Cryer to quit at next election". BBC News Online. 2008-08-21. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/north_yorkshire/7573822.stm. 
  38. ^ "Labour stalwart is to step down". The Journal (Newcastle-upon-Tyne). 2006-10-10. http://www.journallive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-news/2006/10/10/labour-stalwart-is-to-step-down-61634-17901254/. Retrieved 2007-12-26. 
  39. ^ "Crosby Labour MP Claire Curtis-Thomas to stand down at general election". Liverpool Echo. 2009-10-07. http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liverpool-news/local-news/2009/10/07/crosby-labour-mp-claire-curtis-thomas-to-stand-down-at-general-election-92534-24877549/. Retrieved 2009-10-07. 
  40. ^ "Dean to step down as town's MP". Uttoxeter Advertiser,. 2007-06-20. http://www.uttoxeteradvertiser.co.uk/uttoxeteradvertiser/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=104859. 
  41. ^ "City MP Bill to step down". Sunderland Echo. 2006-12-09. http://www.sunderlandtoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=1107&ArticleID=1923137. 
  42. ^ "Barbara Follett steps down as MP in wake of expenses disclosures". The Daily Telegraph. 2009-10-01. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/labour-mps-expenses/6251538/Barbara-Follett-steps-down-as-MP-in-wake-of-expenses-disclosures.html. 
  43. ^ "MP Neil Gerrard to stand down at next election". Waltham Forest Guardian. 2007-02-23. http://www.walthamforestguardian.co.uk/display.var.1215249.0.mp_neil_gerrard_to_stand_down_at_next_election.php. 
  44. ^ "Selby MP Grogan to stand down". York Press. 2006-10-11. http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/yorknews/display.var.961884.0.selby_mp_grogan_to_stand_down.php. 
  45. ^ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5427438/Patricia-Hewitt-to-stand-down-as-MP-at-general-election.html
  46. ^ "Keith Hill to Retire". Keith Hill campaign website. 2007-05-23. http://www.keithhillmp.org.uk/westminster/keith-hill-to-retire.html. 
  47. ^ "Three Labour MPs Standing Down". Sky News. 2009-06-02. http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Three-Labour-MPs-Including-A-Minister-To-Stand-Down/Article/200906115293412?lpos=Politics_First_Poilitics_Article_Teaser_Regi_0&lid=ARTICLE_15293412_Three_Labour_MPs%2C_Including_A_Minister%2C_To_Stand_Down. 
  48. ^ "Hutton quits in cabinet reshuffle". BBC News Online. 2009-06-05. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8084501.stm. 
  49. ^ "MP Brian to step down after 30 years". Manchester Evening News. 2006-10-06. 
  50. ^ "Ex-minister to quit parliament". The Herald. 2009-03-28. http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2498384.0.ingram_to_step_down_after_32_years_as_mp.php. Retrieved 2009-05-21. 
  51. ^ "Jones won't defect to Lib Dems". Birmingham Post. 2007-02-01. http://icbirmingham.icnetwork.co.uk/birminghampost/news/tm_method=full%26objectid=18561036%26siteid=50002-name_page.html. 
  52. ^ "MP to revive lager on retirement". BBC News. 2009-05-07. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/north_east/8036310.stm. Retrieved 2009-05-10. 
  53. ^ "Ruth Kelly to stand down as an MP". BBC News Online. 2008-10-03. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7649662.stm. 
  54. ^ "Wearside MP to stand down". Sunderland Echo. 2008-09-06. http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/Wearside-MP-to-stand-down.4465689.jp. 
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  59. ^ "Blairite McKenna to step down as MP after 40 years in politics". The Herald. 2007-08-03. http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1593028.0.0.php. 
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  68. ^ "Wansbeck MP Denis Murphy to stand down". The Journal. 2009-11-05. http://morpeth.journallive.co.uk/2009/11/wansbeck-mp-denis-murphy-to-st.html. 
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  72. ^ "LEWISHAM: MP Bridget Prentice set to stand down". This is London. 2009-04-06. http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/4269435.LEWISHAM__MP_Bridget_Prentice_set_to_stand_down/. 
  73. ^ "John Prescott to stand down as MP". BBC News Online,. 2007-08-27. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6965184.stm. 
  74. ^ "City MP Ken to retire". Express & Star. 2007-10-27. http://www.expressandstar.com/2007/10/27/city-mp-ken-to-retire. 
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  77. ^ "Sarwar plans to stand down as MP". BBC News Online. 2007-06-21. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/6228920.stm. 
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  81. ^ "Blears wins seat selection battle". BBC News Online. 2008-01-19. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7198111.stm. 
  82. ^ "MP to quit over second job rules". BBC News Online. 2009-07-28. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8173135.stm. 
  83. ^ "Strang ready to quit Commons at next election". The Scotsman. 2007-11-26. http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1855382007. 
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  86. ^ "MP set to stand down". The Burton Mail. 2008-05-13. http://www.burtonmail.co.uk/burtonmail-news/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=314340. 
  87. ^ "Labour backbencher Paddy Tipping stands down". The Guardian. 2009-10-23. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/23/labour-backbencher-paddy-tipping-stands-down. 
  88. ^ "Mark Todd Announces He Will Not Fight Next Election". Derby Evening Telegraph. 2007-09-22. http://www.thisisderbyshire.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=124378&command=displayContent&sourceNode=231734&home=yes&more_nodeId1=124522&contentPK=18461376. 
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  90. ^ "MP to hand over baton of power". Brighton and Hove Argus. 2006-10-24. http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/localnews/display.var.983116.0.mp_to_hand_over_baton_of_power.php. 
  91. ^ "Neil Turner stands down". Manchester Evening News. 2009-07-31. http://blogs.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/politics/2009/07/post_753.html. 
  92. ^ "Burnley MP resigns from Government". Lancashire Telegraph. 2009-06-17. http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/4444475.Burnley_MP_resigns_from_Government/. Retrieved 2009-06-18. 
  93. ^ "Rudi Vis to stand down at next election". Hendon Times. 2007-05-28. http://www.hendontimes.co.uk/display.var.2300378.0.rudi_vis_to_stand_down_at_next_election.php. 
  94. ^ "Blair bids to preserve legacy with new MPs". Evening Standard. 2006-10-23. http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23371776-details/Blair+bids+to+preserve+legacy+with+new+MPs/article.do. 
  95. ^ "Labour MP to stand down as constituency changes". Western Mail. 2008-10-12. http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics-news/2008/09/12/labour-mp-to-stand-down-as-constituency-changes-91466-21802694/. 
  96. ^ "MP Wills will not stand for re-election". Swindon Advertiser. 2009-09-14. http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/4626550.MP_Wills_will_not_stand_for_re_election/. 
  97. ^ "Labour MP set to quit over health". BBC News Online. 2008-07-21. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7517479.stm. 
  98. ^ "Labour MP not seeking re-election". BBC News Online. 2009-07-01. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/kent/8128482.stm. Retrieved 2009-07-01. 
  99. ^ Four Labour MPs Can't Stand In Next Election, Sky News, 2 June 2009
  100. ^ Jim Devine becomes fifth Labour MP barred from standing at election, The Times, 16 June 2009
  101. ^ "Expenses row MP dropped by Labour". BBC News. 2009-06-16. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8104140.stm. 
  102. ^ Devine could trigger by-election - "Labour MP Jim Devine has warned he may force a by-election in his Livingston constituency after being deselected by the party over his expenses claims... Mr Devine said he was also considering staying on until the next election and then standing as an independent." - BBC News 17 June 2009
  103. ^ "Michael Ancram to stand down as MP". The Telegraph. 2009-08-11. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6009691/Michael-Ancram-to-stand-down-as-MP.html. 
  104. ^ "North East's only Tory MP retires". BBC News Online. 2008-05-20. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/tyne/7465036.stm. 
  105. ^ "Boswell set for farewell as Tory MP". Northampton Today. 2006-03-31. http://www.northamptontoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=255&ArticleID=1414532. 
  106. ^ "Tory deputy chairman to step down". BBC News Online. 2006-11-17. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6159528.stm. 
  107. ^ "Sir John to stand down at next election". Dorset Echo. 2008-03-18. http://www.thisisdorset.net/display.var.2127035.0.sir_john_to_stand_down_at_next_election.php. 
  108. ^ "MP to stand down at next election". BBC News Online. 2009-02-05. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/north_yorkshire/7871811.stm. 
  109. ^ "Tory MP To Stand Down For 'Family Reasons'". BBC News Online. 2009-05-28. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8072666.stm. 
  110. ^ "Wycombe MP: I quit". Bucks Free Press. 2009-06-05. http://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/4421105.Wycombe_MP__I_quit/. 
  111. ^ "Ousted MP speaks out". Malton and Pickering Mercury. 2006-11-28. http://www.maltonmercury.co.uk/news/Ousted-MP-speaks-out.1901875.jp. 
  112. ^ "Moat claim MP to quit at election". BBC News Online. 2009-05-19. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8057579.stm. 
  113. ^ "Long-serving Tory MP stands down". BBC News Online. 2009-10-12. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8303278.stm. 
  114. ^ "Michael Howard stands down as MP". BBC News Online. 2006-03-17. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4818832.stm. 
  115. ^ "Shock as MP Jack to quit seat". Blackpool Gazette. 2008-03-15. http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/blackpoolnews/Shock-as-MP-Jack-to.3881603.jp. 
  116. ^ "Expenses scandal MP to stand down". Bromley Times. 2009-09-21. http://www.bromleytimes.co.uk/content/bromley/times/news/story.aspx?brand=BMLYTonline&category=news&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsbmlyt&itemid=WeED21%20Sep%202009%2017%3A20%3A20%3A593. 
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  118. ^ "Tory MP to stand down at election". BBC News Online. 2009-05-23. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8065339.stm. 
  119. ^ "Tory MP Maclean to leave Commons". BBC News Online. 2009-06-27. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8122470.stm. 
  120. ^ "Woking's MP to stand down at next election". Woking News & Mail. 2009-03-16. http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/s/2047039_wokings_mp_to_stand_down_at_next_election. 
  121. ^ "Veteran MP announces retirement". BBC News Online. 2006-11-24. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hampshire/6182424.stm. 
  122. ^ "Fenland MP Malcolm Moss will stand down". Peterborough Evening Telegraph. 2007-09-07. http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/Fenland-MP-Malcolm-Moss-will.3182451.jp. 
  123. ^ "Sir Michael gets ready to bow out". Worcester News. 2006-03-24. http://archive.worcesternews.co.uk/2006/3/24/404485.html. 
  124. ^ "Expenses row MP is standing down". BBC News Online. 2009-05-20. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/devon/8060423.stm. 
  125. ^ "Taylor to step down at election". BBC News Online. 2009-06-16. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8103070.stm. 
  126. ^ "MP to step down over duck island". BBC News Online. 2009-05-21. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/hampshire/8060755.stm. 
  127. ^ "Ann Widdecombe set to stand down". BBC News Online. 2007-10-07. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7032992.stm. 
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  130. ^ "Julie Kirkbride to stand down over expenses claims". Guardian Online. 2009-05-28. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/28/julie-kirkbride-expenses-quitting. 
  131. ^ Isaby, Jonathan (6 November 2009). "Julie Kirkbride tells Bromsgrove Conservatives she wishes to be their candidate at the general election". ConservativeHome. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/11/julie-kirkbride-tells-bromsgrove-conservatives-she-wishes-to-be-their-candidate-at-the-general-elect.html. 
  132. ^ "Lib Dems' Barrett to quit as MP". BBC News Online. 2009-07-25. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8168699.stm. 
  133. ^ "Colin Breed MP to stand down at next General Election". http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/colin-breed-mp-to-stand-down-at-next-general-election.13217.html. 
  134. ^ "Lib Dem MP Howarth to stand down". BBC News Online. 2009-11-05. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8345355.stm. 
  135. ^ Paul Keetch MP to stand down at General Election, LibDemVoice
  136. ^ "Lib Dem Oaten to stand down as MP". BBC News Online. 2006-07-25. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/5214920.stm. 
  137. ^ "Lib Dem MP Taylor to step down". BBC News Online. 2007-05-18. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6271741.stm. 
  138. ^ "Lib Dem MP to retire from Commons". BBC News Online. 2007-05-18. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/north_yorkshire/6666851.stm. 
  139. ^ Conway to step down at election, BBC News Online, 30 January 2008
  140. ^ Paisley to step down as MP at next election, The Irish Times, 17 January 2008
  141. ^ "Paisley 'may stand again as MP'". BBC News Online. 2009-06-24. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8116501.stm. Retrieved 2009-06-25. 
  142. ^ MP to stand down at next election, BBC News Online, 4 December 2007
  143. ^ Plaid MP Adam Price to stand down, BBC News Online, 18 September 2009
  144. ^ Salmond IS to stand for Gordon MSP seat, Buchan Observer, January 2006.
  145. ^ BBC News — Tories urge Salmond to quit as MP
  146. ^ Clare Short: I'm standing down so I can speak the truth, The Independent, 14 September 2006.
  147. ^ Clare Short resigns as Labour MP, BBC News Online, 20 October 2006
  148. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies and Assembly Electoral Regions (Wales) Order 2006 (S.I. 2006 No. 1041)". http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2006/20061041.htm. 
  149. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007 (S.I. 2007 No. 1681)". http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2007/20071681.htm. 
  150. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (Northern Ireland) Order 2008 (S.I. 2008 No. 1486)". http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2008/uksi_20081486_en_1. 
  151. ^ Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre for BBC, ITN, PA News and Sky News. ISBN 0 948858 45 1.
  152. ^ UKPollingReport Election Guide, UK Polling Report, in association with YouGov

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