Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2005
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Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2005
Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2005 election by various organisations.
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Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
Summary of available poll results (including electoral results) for the 2002–2005 electoral term for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother.
Individual polls
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | ACT | Green | United Future | Māori | Destiny |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 election result | 27 July 2002 | 41.26 | 20.93 | 10.38 | 7.14 | 7.00 | 6.69 | N/A[note 1] | |
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | August 2002 | 42.65 | 21.26 | 9.85 | 6.93 | 6.68 | 6.12 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | August 2002 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | August 2002 | 40 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | September 2002 | 44.04 | 21.59 | 9.32 | 6.73 | 6.37 | 5.56 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | September 2002 | 49 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 4.7 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | September 2002 | 47 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | October 2002 | 45.43 | 21.92 | 8.79 | 6.52 | 6.05 | 4.99 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | October 2002 | 49.5 | 19 | 10 | 4.9 | 8 | 4.85 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | October 2002 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | November 2002 | 46.82 | 22.24 | 8.26 | 6.31 | 5.73 | 4.43 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | November 2002 | 50 | 19 | 10 | 4.8 | 8 | 5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | November 2002 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2.9 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | December 2002 | 48.21 | 22.57 | 7.73 | 6.11 | 5.42 | 3.86 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | December 2002 | 52 | 19.7 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | December 2002 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | January 2003 | 49.6 | 22.9 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | January 2003 | 54 | 20.3 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | January 2003 | 52.5 | 26 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | February 2003 | 49.55 | 24.18 | 7.4 | 5.82 | 5.15 | 2.92 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | February 2003 | 56 | 21 | 6 | 4.2 | 6 | 3.6 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | February 2003 | 53 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | March 2003 | 49.5 | 25.45 | 7.6 | 5.75 | 5.2 | 2.55 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | March 2003 | 54.5 | 23.5 | 5.5 | 4.55 | 6 | 3 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | March 2003 | 51 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2.9 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | April 2003 | 49.45 | 26.72 | 7.8 | 5.68 | 5.25 | 2.18 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | April 2003 | 53 | 26 | 5 | 4.9 | 6 | 2.4 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | April 2003 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | May 2003 | 49.4 | 28 | 8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | May 2003 | 52.5 | 25 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 6 | 2.65 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | May 2003 | 50 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | June 2003 | 48.8 | 27.6 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | June 2003 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 4.5 | 6 | 2.9 | ||
| 13 June 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed.[3] | |||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | July 2003 | 48.2 | 27.2 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | July 2003 | 52 | 23.5 | 8.5 | 4.75 | 6 | 2.8 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | July 2003 | 51 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1.1 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | August 2003 | 47.7 | 26.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 5 | 4.2 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | August 2003 | 52 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 2.7 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | August 2003 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2.6 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | September 2003 | 45.5 | 24.55 | 11 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 3.45 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | September 2003 | 49 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 2.8 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | September 2003 | 45 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3.4 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | October 2003 | 43.3 | 22.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 2.7 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | October 2003 | 46 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 2.9 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | October 2003 | 45 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2.8 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | November 2003 | 44.43 | 23.13 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 2.43 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | November 2003 | 47.5 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 8 | 2.8 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | November 2003 | 45 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | December 2003 | 45.57 | 23.97 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 2.17 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | December 2003 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 4.8 | 8 | 2.7 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | December 2003 | 45 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2.1 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | January 2004 | 46.7 | 24.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 1.9 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | January 2004 | 46 | 27.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 8 | 2.55 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | January 2004 | 45 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2.1 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | February 2004 | 37 | 45.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | February 2004 | 43 | 32 | 8 | 4.2 | 8 | 2.4 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | February 2004 | 38 | 45 | 6 | 1.3 | 5 | 1.8 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | March 2004 | 36.75 | 45.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 5.15 | 1.65 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | March 2004 | 39 | 42 | 6 | 2.4 | 6 | 0.9 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | March 2004 | 39 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | April 2004 | 36.5 | 45 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 5 | 1.9 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | April 2004 | 42 | 42 | 5 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | April 2004 | 37 | 48 | 5 | 1.6 | 5 | 1.9 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | May 2004 | 36.25 | 44.5 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 4.85 | 2.15 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | May 2004 | 41 | 42.5 | 5 | 1.65 | 4.6 | 2.2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | May 2004 | 37 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1.4 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | June 2004 | 36 | 44 | 5.6 | 2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | June 2004 | 43 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | June 2004 | 40 | 44 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5 | 2.2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | July 2004 | 38.7 | 42.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 2.5 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | July 2004 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | July 2004 | 39 | 43 | 5 | 2.7 | 4 | 2.2 | ||
| 7 July 2004 – The Māori Party is formed. | |||||||||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | August 2004 | 41.4 | 40.6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 2.5 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | August 2004 | 44.3 | 37 | 5 | 2.8 | 4.85 | 2.1 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | August 2004 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 1.6 | 4 | 1.5 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | September 2004 | 44.1 | 38.9 | 5 | 1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | September 2004 | 44.7 | 35 | 5 | 3.1 | 5 | 2.5 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | September 2004 | 42 | 42 | 5 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.7 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | October 2004 | 46.1 | 30.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | October 2004 | 45 | 33 | 5 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | October 2004 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 3.1 | 4 | 2.2 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | November 2004 | 48.1 | 30.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | November 2004 | 45.5 | 32.5 | 6 | 3.05 | 5.15 | 2.55 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | November 2004 | 44 | 38 | 5 | 3.3 | 4 | 2.5 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | December 2004 | 50.1 | 30.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | December 2004 | 46 | 32 | 7 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | December 2004 | 47 | 35 | 5 | 2.8 | 5 | 1.4 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | January 2005 | 47.5 | 33.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | January 2005 | 47 | 35 | 6 | 2.45 | 4.9 | 1.85 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | January 2005 | 45.5 | 37 | 5 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | ||
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | February 2005 | 44.8 | 35.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 3 | ||
| 3 News TNS[1] | February 2005 | 46 | 38 | 5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | February 2005 | 39 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | March 2005 | 35 | 46 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | April 2005 | 38 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | May 2005 | 37 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | June 2005 | 43 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | July 2005 | 39 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | |
| Roy Morgan Research[4] | 21 July — 1 August 2005 | 38 | 38 | 10 | 1.5 | 6 | 2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 1 August – 4 August 2005 | 41 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Roy Morgan Research[4] | 2 August – 15 August 2005 | 40 | 36.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 2 | ||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 15 August – 18 August 2005 | 37 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 22 August – 25 August 2005 | 40 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 29 August – 1 September 2005 | 38 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | 3 September — 13 September 2005 | 38.5 | 37 | 6.5 | 3 | 7.5 | |||
| One News Colmar Brunton[2] | 5 September – 8 September 2005 | 39 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 News TNS[1] | 8 September — 14 September 2005 | 40.5 | 38.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | |
| Herald-DigiPoll[1] | 9 September — 14 September 2005 | 44.6 | 37.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |
| One News Colmar Brunton[1] | 12 September — 14 September 2005 | 38 | 44 | 6 | 1.9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | |
| Fairfax Media–Nielsen[1] | 13 September 2005 | 37 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2005 election result | 17 September 2005 | 41.1 | 39.1 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | ACT | Green | United Future | Māori | Destiny |
- ^ The Māori Party and Destiny New Zealand were formed in 2004 and 2003, so did not contest the 2002 election
See also
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo "3 News TNS Poll Most Accurate In New Zealand – Morgan Poll Accurately Predicted Small Lead To NZ Labour Party, But Overestimated Minor Parties". Roy Morgan Research. http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2005/3898/. Retrieved 7 November 2011.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an "All Past Results". Colmar Brunton. http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=20. Retrieved 13 March 2010.
- ^ http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0306/S00085.htm
- ^ a b "Support For NZ Labour Up 2% To 40% – Latest Morgan Poll Shows". Roy Morgan Research. http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2005/3886/. Retrieved 7 November 2011.
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