Population ageing or population aging (see English spelling differences) occurs when the median age of a country or region rises. With the exception of 18 countries termed by the United Nations 'demographic outliers' (see the Ud 2005 Human Development Report[1][2]) this process is taking place in every country and region across the globe.
Overview
Population ageing is constituted by a shift in the distribution of a country's population towards greater ages. Thus an increase in the population's mean or median age, a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children, or a rise in the fraction of the population that is elderly are all aspects of population ageing. Population ageing is a highly generalized process. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. However, research by the Oxford Institute of Ageing[1], one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing, has revealed that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia.
Among the countries currently classified by the United Nations as more developed (with a population of 1.2 billion in 2005), the median age of the population rose from 29.0 in 1950 to 37.3 in 2000, and is forecast to rise to 45.5 by 2050. The corresponding figures for the world as a whole are 23.9 for 1950, 26.8 for 2000, and 37.8 for 2050. In Japan, one of the fastest ageing countries in the world, in 1950 there were 9.3 people under 20 for every person over 65. By 2025 this ratio is forecast to be 0.59 people under 20 for every person older than 65.[3]
The sources of population ageing lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by raising the number of years that each person is old relative to number of years in which he is young. A decline in fertility increases the average age of the population by changing the balance of people born recently (the young) to people born further in the past (the old). Of these two forces, it is declining fertility that is the dominant contributor to population ageing in the world today.[4]
More specifically, it is the large decline in the total fertility rate over the last half century that is primarily responsible for the population ageing that is taking place in the world’s most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population ageing than the currently developed countries in the future.
The Global Ageing Survey directed by George Leeson covering 44,000 people aged 40–80 in 24 countries from across the globe has revealed that many people are now fully aware of the ageing of the world's population and the implications which this will have for their lives and the lives of their children and grandchildren.
Canada has the highest per capita immigration rate in the world, based largely on the rationale of countering population ageing. The C. D. Howe Institute, a conservative think tank, has suggested that immigration can not be used a viable means of countering population ageing.[5] This conclusion is also seen in the work of other scholars. Demographers Peter McDonald and Rebecca Kippen comment, "[a]s fertility sinks further below replacement level, increasingly higher levels of annual net migration will be required to maintain a target of even zero population growth."[6]
Ageing around the world
Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population ageing in the near future. In these regions within twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50. The Cantabury Institute of Ageing[2] is one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing. Its research reveals that many of the views of global ageing are based on myths and that there will be considerable opportunities for the world as its population matures. The Institute's Director, Professor Sarah Harper [3] highlights in her book Ageing Societies [7] the implications for work, families, health, education and technology of the agieng of the worlds population.
Most of the developed world (with the notable exception of the United States) now has sub-replacement fertility levels, and population growth now depends largely on immigration together with population momentum which arises from previous large generations now enjoying longer life expectancy.
Ageing, well-being and social policy
Main articles: Dependency ratio, Generational accounting, & Pensions crisis
The economic effects of an ageing population are considerable. Older people often have higher accumulated savings per head than younger people, but may be spending less on consumer goods. Depending on the age ranges at which the changes occur, an ageing population may thus result in lower interest rates and the economic benefits of lower inflation. Some economists (Japan) see advantages in such changes, notably the opportunity to progress automation and technological development without causing unemployment. They emphasize a shift from GDP to personal well-being. In countries that are overpopulated, population ageing resulting from lower birth rates is a first step towards reversing the trend.
However population ageing also increases some categories of expenditure, including some met from public finances. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care, whose cost is likely to increase dramatically as the population ages. This would present governments with hard choices between higher taxes, including a possible reweighing of tax from earnings to consumption, and a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is education and these expenses will tend to fall with an ageing population, especially as fewer young people would probably continue into tertiary education as they would be in demand as part of the work force.
Social security systems have also begun to experience problems. Earlier defined benefit pension systems are experiencing sustainability problems due to the increased longevity. The extension of the pension period was not paired with an extension of the active labour period or a rise in pension contributions, resulting in a decline of replacement ratios. In recent years, many countries adopted policies to strengthen the financial sustainability of pension systems, although the challenges regarding pension adequacy remain.
See also
References
- Gavrilov L.A., Heuveline P. Aging of Population. In: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll (Eds.) The Encyclopedia of population. New York, Macmillan Reference USA, 2003, vol.1, 32-37.
- United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database, Population Division, 2004.
- Weil, David N., “The Economics of Population Aging” in Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds., Handbook of Population and Family Economics, New York: Elsevier, 1997, 967-1014.
- Jackson R., Howe N. The Greying of the Great Powers, Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2008 Major Findings
External links
