Risk homeostasis

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Risk homeostasis is a hypothesis about risk, developed by Gerald J.S. Wilde, a professor emeritus of psychology at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. This hypothesis is elucidated in Wilde's book.^[1] The idea of risk homeostasis has garnered criticism. ^[2]

The hypothesis of risk homeostasis holds that everyone has his or her own fixed level of acceptable risk. When the level of risk in one part of the individual's life changes, there will be a corresponding rise or fall in risk elsewhere to bring the overall risk back to that individual's equilibrium. Wilde argues that the same is true of larger human systems, e.g. a population of drivers.

For example, in a Munich study, half a fleet of taxicabs were equipped with anti-lock brakes (ABS), while the other half had conventional brake systems. The crash rate was the same for both types of cab, and Wilde concludes this was owing to drivers of ABS-equipped cabs taking more risks, assuming that ABS would take care of them, while the non-ABS drivers drove more carefully since ABS would not be there to help in case of a dangerous situation.^[3]

Likewise, it's been found that drivers behave less carefully around bicyclists wearing helmets than around unhelmeted riders.^[4]

Critics of risk homeostasis theory point out that the fatality rate from car crashes has fallen dramatically following the introduction of seat belt laws, directly contradicting Wilde's ideas.(Andreassen^[5], Broughton^[6], Oppe^[7], and Ameen & Naji^[8]).

See also

• Peltzman effect
• Risk compensation

External links

• Target Risk - web version of the first edition of Wilde's book

References

1. ^ Wilde, Gerald J.S. (2001). Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health. ISBN 0-9699124-3-9. 
2. ^ O'Neill B, Williams A (June 1998). "Risk homeostasis hypothesis: a rebuttal". Inj. Prev. 4 (2): 92–3. doi:10.1136/ip.4.2.92. PMC 1730350. PMID 9666359. http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1730350. 
3. ^ Munich taxicab experiment discussion
4. ^ Drivers leave less margin when overtaking helmeted cyclists
5. ^ D. C. Andreassen (1985). "Linking deaths with vehicles and population". Traffic Engineering and Control 26 (11): 547–549. 
6. ^ J. Broughton (1988). "Predictive models of road accident fatalities". Traffic Engineering and Control 29 (5): 296–300. 
7. ^ S. Oppe (1991). "The development of traffic and traffic safety in six developed countries". Accident Analysis and Prevention 23 (5): 401–412. doi:10.1016/0001-4575(91)90059-E. PMID 1741895. 
8. ^ J. R. M. Ameen and J. A. Naji (2001). "Causal models for road accident fatalities in Yemen". Accident Analysis and Prevention 33 (4): 547–561. doi:10.1016/S0001-4575(00)00069-5. PMID 11426685. 

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