| ‹ 2004 |
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| United States presidential election in Iowa, 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 4, 2008 | ||||
| Nominee | Barack Obama | John McCain | ||
| Party | Democratic | Republican | ||
| Home state | Illinois | Arizona | ||
| Running mate | Joe Biden | Sarah Palin | ||
| Electoral vote | 7 | 0 | ||
| Popular vote | 828,940 | 682,379 | ||
| Percentage | 53.93% | 44.39% | ||
| County Results | ||||
|
Incumbent President President-elect |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 7 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
Iowa was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 9.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. In 2004 Republican George W. Bush very narrowly won the state in his reelection bid. A Midwestern state where agriculture plays a critical role in the daily lives of its citizens, Iowa is nevertheless an independent state. However, due to Obama's victory in the Iowa caucuses and Bush's unpopularity, Obama was able to perform better here than Kerry and Gore did.
Contents |
Caucuses
Campaign
Predictions
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Iowa caucuses |
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United States House Elections |
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Iowa Senate Elections |
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Iowa House Elections |
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There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are there last predictions before election day:
- D.C. Political Report: Democrat[1]
- Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat[2]
- Takeaway: Leaning Obama[3]
- Election Projection: Solid Obama[4]
- Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[5]
- Washington Post: Solid Obama[6]
- Politico: Solid Obama[7]
- Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[8]
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[9]
- CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[10]
- New York Times: Leaning Democrat[11]
- CNN: Safe Democrat[12]
- NPR: Solid Obama[13]
- MSNBC: Leaning Obama[14]
- Fox News: Democrat[15]
- Associated Press: Democrat[16]
- Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[17]
Polling
Obama won every single pre-election poll taken in the state. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 54% to 39%.[18]
Fundraising
John McCain raised a total of $680,641 in the state. Barack Obama raised $2,250,696.[19]
Advertising and visits
Obama and his interest groups spent $15,334,065. McCain and his interest groups spent $5,817,988.[20] The Republican ticket visited the state 9 times. The Democrat ticket visited the state 4 times.[21]
Analysis
Despite its closeness in recent elections, Iowa was not in close contention in the 2008 election. During primary season, Barack Obama had campaigned extensively in the state and won a substantial victory that established him as the Democratic front-runner and ultimately propelled him to victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton. In contrast, John McCain did not campaign at all in Iowa and ended up placing fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucus. Moreover, John McCain's stand against Congressional ethanol subsidies proved unpopular in a state that had a large corn crop; conversely, Barack Obama supported these subsidies. Polls consistently gave Barack Obama a double-digit lead in the state.
On Election Day, Obama won by a 9.54-point margin. The reliably Republican western part of the state turned out for John McCain, but more populated Eastern Iowa, which traditionally votes Democratic, gave Obama an edge. Every county in the state, except for Clarke County in Western Iowa, voted more Democratic than in Election 2004.
At the same time, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tom Harkin was reelected with 62.66% of the vote over Republican Christopher Reed, a businessman, who received 37.26%. At the state level, Democrats expanded their leads in the Iowa state legislature, picking up four seats in the Iowa House of Representatives and two seats in the Iowa Senate.
Results
| United States presidential election in Iowa, 2008 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | 828,940 | 53.93% | 7 | |
| Republican | John McCain | 682,379 | 44.39% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 8,014 | 0.52% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | 4,590 | 0.30% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin | 4,445 | 0.29% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | 1,423 | 0.09% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | Roger Calero | 292 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Socialist Party USA | Brian Moore | 182 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Party for Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva | 121 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Invalid or blank votes | 13,882 | 0.01% | |||
| Totals | 1,544,268 | 97.89%[22] | 7 | ||
Results breakdown
By county
| County | Obama | Votes | McCain | Votes | Others | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 47.5% | 1,924 | 50.8% | 2,060 | 1.7% | 69 |
| Adams | 50.2% | 1,118 | 46.9% | 1,046 | 2.9% | 64 |
| Allamakee | 56.1% | 3,971 | 41.9% | 2,965 | 2.0% | 140 |
| Appanoose | 48.1% | 2,970 | 49.9% | 3,086 | 2.0% | 123 |
| Audubon | 50.1% | 1,739 | 47.1% | 1,634 | 2.7% | 95 |
| Benton | 51.3% | 7,058 | 46.8% | 6,447 | 1.9% | 264 |
| Black Hawk | 60.2% | 39,184 | 37.9% | 24,662 | 1.9% | 1,214 |
| Boone | 52.5% | 7,356 | 44.9% | 6,293 | 2.6% | 362 |
| Bremer | 53.8% | 6,940 | 44.5% | 5,741 | 1.8% | 227 |
| Buchanan | 58.4% | 6,050 | 40.0% | 4,139 | 1.6% | 165 |
| Buena Vista | 47.9% | 4,075 | 49.7% | 4,223 | 2.4% | 203 |
| Butler | 46.7% | 3,364 | 51.4% | 3,700 | 1.9% | 140 |
| Calhoun | 44.7% | 2,341 | 52.4% | 2,741 | 2.9% | 151 |
| Carroll | 50.5% | 5,302 | 46.9% | 4,922 | 2.6% | 270 |
| Cass | 43.3% | 3,211 | 54.0% | 4,006 | 2.6% | 195 |
| Cedar | 53.8% | 5,221 | 44.2% | 4,289 | 2.1% | 202 |
| Cerro Gordo | 59.3% | 14,405 | 38.6% | 9,375 | 2.1% | 513 |
| Cherokee | 45.4% | 2,890 | 53.0% | 3,372 | 1.7% | 106 |
| Chickasaw | 59.1% | 3,923 | 38.5% | 2,557 | 2.4% | 161 |
| Clarke | 49.8% | 2,218 | 47.5% | 2,118 | 2.7% | 119 |
| Clay | 46.5% | 3,925 | 51.6% | 4,355 | 1.9% | 162 |
| Clayton | 57.8% | 5,195 | 40.6% | 3,651 | 1.6% | 144 |
| Clinton | 60.4% | 15,018 | 37.5% | 9,324 | 2.1% | 533 |
| Crawford | 51.0% | 3,715 | 45.9% | 3,345 | 3.2% | 230 |
| Dallas | 46.2% | 15,149 | 51.8% | 16,954 | 2.0% | 656 |
| Davis | 44.0% | 1,680 | 53.1% | 2,029 | 2.9% | 109 |
| Decatur | 48.4% | 1,986 | 49.2% | 2,020 | 2.4% | 100 |
| Delaware | 52.2% | 4,649 | 46.2% | 4,113 | 1.6% | 141 |
| Des Moines | 60.2% | 12,462 | 37.3% | 7,721 | 2.5% | 510 |
| Dickinson | 46.5% | 4,625 | 51.9% | 5,162 | 1.6% | 155 |
| Dubuque | 59.3% | 28,611 | 38.7% | 18,651 | 2.1% | 993 |
| Emmet | 50.6% | 2,570 | 46.7% | 2,373 | 2.7% | 135 |
| Fayette | 57.1% | 5,908 | 40.7% | 4,205 | 2.2% | 227 |
| Floyd | 59.0% | 4,822 | 37.3% | 3,051 | 3.7% | 304 |
| Franklin | 49.4% | 2,575 | 48.0% | 2,501 | 2.5% | 132 |
| Fremont | 46.9% | 1,848 | 50.5% | 1,989 | 2.6% | 104 |
| Greene | 48.8% | 2,371 | 48.4% | 2,349 | 2.8% | 138 |
| Grundy | 40.5% | 2,790 | 57.3% | 3,945 | 2.2% | 155 |
| Guthrie | 44.8% | 2,625 | 52.5% | 3,074 | 2.7% | 159 |
| Hamilton | 49.3% | 4,018 | 48.0% | 3,913 | 2.6% | 213 |
| Hancock | 46.9% | 2,805 | 50.4% | 3,016 | 2.7% | 162 |
| Hardin | 49.1% | 4,393 | 48.2% | 4,315 | 2.8% | 248 |
| Harrison | 46.5% | 3,555 | 51.2% | 3,909 | 2.3% | 173 |
| Henry | 46.1% | 4,349 | 51.2% | 4,822 | 2.7% | 255 |
| Howard | 62.2% | 2,941 | 36.4% | 1,722 | 1.4% | 66 |
| Humboldt | 42.1% | 2,160 | 56.4% | 2,895 | 1.6% | 81 |
| Ida | 41.0% | 1,454 | 57.4% | 2,036 | 1.6% | 57 |
| Iowa | 49.1% | 4,202 | 48.9% | 4,188 | 1.9% | 166 |
| Jackson | 61.3% | 6,102 | 36.9% | 3,673 | 1.8% | 182 |
| Jasper | 52.4% | 10,250 | 44.9% | 8,794 | 2.7% | 522 |
| Jefferson | 58.4% | 5,070 | 38.3% | 3,324 | 3.2% | 281 |
| Johnson | 69.7% | 51,027 | 28.3% | 20,732 | 2.0% | 1,472 |
| Jones | 54.0% | 5,446 | 43.7% | 4,405 | 2.3% | 229 |
| Keokuk | 46.9% | 2,518 | 50.5% | 2,712 | 2.5% | 136 |
| Kossuth | 50.3% | 4,625 | 47.0% | 4,329 | 2.7% | 249 |
| Lee | 56.6% | 9,821 | 40.7% | 7,062 | 2.7% | 469 |
| Linn | 59.8% | 68,037 | 38.4% | 43,626 | 1.8% | 2,058 |
| Louisa | 50.8% | 2,523 | 46.6% | 2,314 | 2.6% | 131 |
| Lucas | 45.3% | 2,029 | 52.1% | 2,330 | 2.6% | 117 |
| Lyon | 26.8% | 1,675 | 71.5% | 4,471 | 1.7% | 109 |
| Madison | 43.8% | 3,733 | 53.7% | 4,579 | 2.5% | 217 |
| Mahaska | 40.8% | 4,464 | 57.3% | 6,271 | 2.0% | 217 |
| Marion | 43.4% | 7,421 | 54.1% | 9,256 | 2.6% | 438 |
| Marshall | 53.4% | 10,023 | 44.1% | 8,278 | 2.5% | 464 |
| Mills | 40.6% | 2,976 | 57.1% | 4,183 | 2.3% | 168 |
| Mitchell | 55.1% | 3,179 | 42.8% | 2,469 | 2.0% | 118 |
| Monona | 47.8% | 2,295 | 50.3% | 2,411 | 1.9% | 91 |
| Monroe | 46.0% | 1,798 | 51.2% | 2,000 | 2.8% | 111 |
| Montgomery | 44.0% | 2,326 | 54.6% | 2,887 | 1.4% | 76 |
| Muscatine | 56.8% | 10,920 | 41.2% | 7,929 | 2.0% | 387 |
| O'Brien | 31.8% | 2,338 | 66.5% | 4,894 | 1.7% | 122 |
| Osceola | 33.0% | 1,037 | 64.5% | 2,027 | 2.6% | 81 |
| Page | 39.3% | 2,900 | 59.0% | 4,351 | 1.6% | 119 |
| Palo Alto | 50.0% | 2,428 | 47.2% | 2,294 | 2.8% | 136 |
| Plymouth | 37.0% | 4,629 | 62.0% | 7,765 | 1.0% | 121 |
| Pocahontas | 44.5% | 1,800 | 52.9% | 2,138 | 2.6% | 107 |
| Polk | 56.1% | 120,984 | 41.6% | 89,668 | 2.4% | 5,099 |
| Pottawattamie | 48.0% | 20,436 | 49.9% | 21,237 | 2.1% | 907 |
| Poweshiek | 55.0% | 5,519 | 43.3% | 4,340 | 1.7% | 174 |
| Ringgold | 46.0% | 1,236 | 52.1% | 1,401 | 1.9% | 52 |
| Sac | 44.6% | 2,256 | 53.5% | 2,705 | 1.9% | 95 |
| Scott | 56.6% | 48,927 | 42.1% | 36,365 | 1.3% | 1,086 |
| Shelby | 44.3% | 2,863 | 54.0% | 3,488 | 1.7% | 112 |
| Sioux | 18.2% | 3,030 | 80.9% | 13,490 | 1.0% | 159 |
| Story | 56.8% | 26,548 | 40.7% | 18,995 | 2.5% | 1,179 |
| Tama | 55.0% | 4,899 | 42.9% | 3,820 | 2.1% | 185 |
| Taylor | 44.5% | 1,347 | 53.1% | 1,607 | 2.5% | 75 |
| Union | 50.3% | 3,000 | 46.6% | 2,781 | 3.1% | 183 |
| Van Buren | 42.5% | 1,546 | 54.6% | 1,986 | 3.0% | 108 |
| Wapello | 54.9% | 8,820 | 41.4% | 6,663 | 3.7% | 592 |
| Warren | 49.4% | 12,299 | 48.7% | 12,144 | 1.9% | 469 |
| Washington | 48.6% | 5,170 | 49.3% | 5,247 | 2.1% | 225 |
| Wayne | 45.5% | 1,357 | 52.5% | 1,565 | 2.0% | 59 |
| Webster | 53.0% | 9,917 | 44.6% | 8,337 | 2.4% | 454 |
| Winnebago | 53.2% | 3,254 | 44.6% | 2,730 | 2.3% | 138 |
| Winneshiek | 60.1% | 6,829 | 37.6% | 4,273 | 2.3% | 265 |
| Woodbury | 49.1% | 21,983 | 49.6% | 22,219 | 1.4% | 613 |
| Worth | 59.9% | 2,567 | 37.6% | 1,612 | 2.4% | 103 |
| Wright | 48.5% | 3,102 | 50.0% | 3,198 | 1.5% | 95 |
By congressional District
Barack Obama carried four out of the state’s five congressional districts, including one district held by a Republican.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 40.72% | 58.24% | Bruce Braley |
| 2nd | 38.57% | 60.18% | David Loebsack |
| 3rd | 44.66% | 54.03% | Leonard Boswell |
| 4th | 45.53% | 53.11% | Tom Latham |
| 5th | 54.60% | 44.25% | Steve King |
Electors
Technically the voters of Iowa cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:
- Elwood Thompson
- Slayton Thompson
- Kathleen O'Leary
- Jon Heitland
- Dennis Ryan
- Joe Judge
- Audrey Linville
References
- ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html
- ^ http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap
- ^ Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
- ^ http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/president08.shtml
- ^ http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html
- ^ Based on Takeaway
- ^ http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
- ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
- ^ Based on Takeaway
- ^ http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/
- ^ http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse
- ^ http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/
- ^ Based on Takeaway
- ^ Based on Takeaway
- ^ http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/
- ^ http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/
- ^ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
- ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=19
- ^ http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=IA&cand_id=P00000001
- ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/
- ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/
- ^ Total percent is not 100% due to rounding of individual percentages.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
- "2008 General Election Official Canvass Summary". State of Iowa. http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2008/OfficialCanvass2008General.pdf. Retrieved 2009-01-20.
See also
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