Presidential primaries are contests held by state political parties to determine the composition of state delegations to the national nominating conventions. State election laws establish the rules for primaries: in closed primaries only voters registered in the state party may vote; in open primaries independents may also vote; in crossover primaries voters from any party as well as independents may participate. Turnouts in primaries are low. Through the 1970s, approximately 11 percent of the eligible voters participated; since then, the percentage has almost doubled, to 21 percent.

The first Presidential primary was held in Florida, which in 1904 created a “preference” primary that did not bind its state's convention delegates. In 1905 Governor Robert M. La Follette of Wisconsin won passage of the first state law creating a delegate—selection primary in time for the 1908 conventions. That same year Oregon adopted a “first ballot” primary that bound the state delegation to vote for the winner of the primary on the first convention ballot. North Dakota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and New Jersey followed suit.

By 1912 a dozen states had established primaries, including California, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and South Dakota, but many were “preference” primaries, in which voters could not only choose delegates but also express a preference for their party's nomination. Sometimes this could lead to confusing results. In Massachusetts, for instance, the state's voters selected a slate of Theodore Roosevelt supporters to go to the convention but expressed their “preference” for William Howard Taft. Ex—President Roosevelt, after losing the Republican nomination and deciding to run on the Progressive party ticket, called for a national primary that would end such anomalies and allow voters in each party to choose the Presidential nominee without the need for a convention.

As of 1916, 20 states held primaries, and President Woodrow Wilson also endorsed the idea of a national primary. But the pendulum swung in the other direction: in the 1920s, because of high costs and low voter participation, eight states dropped primaries and returned to the caucus system. Until the 1970s, between 12 and 17 states used the primary system, while the remainder used the caucus system.

Candidates could lose a majority of primaries—or not enter them—and still win their party's Presidential nomination. The list includes Woodrow Wilson and William Howard Taft in 1912; Warren Harding in 1920; Herbert Hoover in 1932; Thomas Dewey in 1948; Dwight Eisenhower in 1952; and Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Conversely, winning primaries did not ensure a contender of winning the Presidential nomination. In 1912 Theodore Roosevelt won every primary but was defeated for the Republican nomination by incumbent President William Howard Taft, primarily because Taft controlled patronage vital to state parties. In 1948 Harold Stassen won three early Republican primaries but could not derail the candidacy of Thomas Dewey.

Entering primaries enabled candidates to dispel doubts about their electability and gain the support of political bosses who controlled a majority of the convention delegates. In 1960 John F. Kennedy won primaries in Wisconsin and West Virginia, demonstrating that a Catholic could do well with Protestant voters. In 1968 Richard Nixon won enough primaries to dispel his “loser” reputation.

By 1968 primaries were held in 17 states, accounting for 37.5 percent of the Democratic and 34.3 percent of the Republican convention delegates. That year, Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic nomination without having entered a single Democratic primary. To rank-and-file Democrats, many of whom had voted for Humphrey's rivals Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy, the system seemed undemocratic.

Democrats, stung by their defeat in the 1968 Presidential election, organized the Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection, known as the McGovern-Fraser Commission. As a result of its recommendations, six more states adopted the primary system by 1972, and another eight by 1976. There were 35 Democratic Presidential primaries by 1980 and 39 by 2000. Republican state parties followed suit.

Today, in any given election between two-thirds and three-quarters of each party's convention delegates are chosen in primaries. Even more significant, party rules require that the preferences of the voters be translated directly into election of delegates. Gone are the “preference” primaries that had no effect on the composition of the state delegation.

A string of primary victories now translates into large numbers of convention delegates committed to a candidate. Primary winners also get momentum; they receive more campaign contributions and favorable media exposure, and they rise in the public opinion polls. In 1976 Jimmy Carter went from less than 1 percent support in the polls to more than 30 percent on the basis of his victory in the New Hampshire primary.

Contenders who do poorly in early primaries find that their contributions dry up and Treasury funding for their campaign is cut off. The early primaries winnow the field down to two or three serious contenders. Then a regional grouping (such as Super Tuesday in the South, on which day six or more states hold primaries) or primaries in large states such as New York may propel one of the contenders far to the front. Since 1972, any front-runner who has emerged from the primary season with more than 41 percent of the delegates has been nominated.

See also Carter, Jimmy; Caucuses, Presidential nominating; Election campaigns, Presidential; Kennedy, John F.; Nixon, Richard M.; Nominating conventions, Presidential; Wilson, Woodrow

Sources

• Rhodes Cook, United States Presidential Primary Elections 1968–1996: A Handbook of Election Statistics (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Books, 2000).
• James W. Davis, “Presidential Primaries: Road to the White House” (West-port, Conn.: Greenwood, 1980).
• Austin Ranney, “Curing the Mischiefs of Faction: Party Reform in America” (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1975).
• Byron E. Shafer, “Quiet Revolution: The Struggle for the Democratic Party and the Shaping of Post-Reform Politics” (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1983)

The Oxford Guide to the United States Government. Copyright © 1993, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2002 by John J. Patrick, Richard M. Pious, Donald M. Ritchie. All rights reserved.