Can scientists predict when and where an earthquake will occur?

Answer 1

It can be predicted to a certain degree of accuracy, where is relatively easy, when is tricky, all plates have known vectors and velocities and the areas in which they collide, separate or slide passed one another. The mathematics involved is complicated and subject to intense logistical data collection and collation problems but certainly high probabilities can be assigned to certain geographical areas. An accurate time frame is hard to postulate, after all these plates are fluid and dynamic, which subject to immense fluctuations in the build up and release of pressure, which can be quite sudden.

Answer 2

Not with enough accuracy to provide a useful warning. As such seismologists attempt to quantify the risk posed by a particular fault zone rather than state exactly when an earthquake will occur (as this is currently impossible).

For more information, please see the related question.

Answer 3

The Earth's crust is made up of seven major plates and several smaller plates. These plates move around on top of the mantle. When two or more plates interact with each other they can do one of three things; they can slip past one another, they can pull away from one another, or they can collide. The biggest example of two plates slipping past one another is the San Andreas Fault Zone. If the two plates were perfectly smooth, they would slip by without causing earthquakes, but they aren't smooth. Parts of one plate get stuck on parts of the other plate. When the part that's stuck breaks free, we get an Earthquake.

The second scenario, pulling apart, the earthquakes are caused by the movement of magma through the rocks to the surface. They are generally not big earthquakes, but that's not always the case.

The third kind, collision, cause the largest earthquakes. This is the type that caused the earthquake in Japan last March. There are two types of plate, Oceanic and Continental. Oceanic crust is denser than Continental, so when the two collide, the Oceanic crust dips down into the mantle. The sea floor is not smooth, neither is the underside of the Continental crust. So, just like in the first case, the two get stuck every once in a while. When the stresses are relieved, the Continental crust rebounds, that is, it moves back to the position it was in before the stress was applied. In the case of Japan, the edge of the Continental plate move 167 feet to the east and 33 feet vertically.

I hope this helps :)

Answer 4

Yes as it is plate motion that ultimately cause earthquakes and volcanoes. However even though plate motions are the route cause of earthquakes and volcanoes they are not directly measured to make predictions, for example a fast moving strike slip plate boundary is liable to have big earthquakes but the breaking point i.e an earthquake is mainly due to stress capacity of the rock and there is no current link found between the two, however you could argue that a faster moving plate boundary would generate more earthquakes and volcanic activity.

Sorry if the above is abit confusing to put it more simply imagine 2 pieces of wood in 2 vices closing. One vice is closing fast and one slower it is most likely that the faster vice will snap the wood first however its very difficult to predict especially if the pieces of wood are not identical a defect in the slower vices wood could cause it to break sooner. (earthquake analogy same principle for volcanoes)

Answer 5

they should occur mostly on the ocean floor.

Answer 6

Seismologists attempt to quantify the risk posed by a particular fault zone rather than state exactly when an earthquake will occur (as this is currently impossible).

Answer 7

It is impossible to correctly predict an earthquake, because there are no consistant, accurate signs beforehand.