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Was Barack Obama expected to be re-elected for a second term in office?
Wiki User
∙ 11y ago
Barack Obama won re-election in the 2012 November 6 election by a large margin and is currently serving a second term as president. Many people in the Republican party were surprised by the outcome and did not expect him to win the race. Republican Karl Rove, who acted as Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff during the George W. Bush administration, seemed almost astonished at the news of the defeat of former governor Mitt Romney while he was on the air at Fox News during the election night coverage of the election results.
Written before the president was re-elected, these are the opinions and comments of contributors about whether they thought he would be reelected:
An ABC/Washington Post News Poll has put President Obama and Republican Romney neck and neck. The re-election seems too close to call. Gov. Romney ran against President Obama in the 2008 election but was defeated. He is now the leading Republican candidate nominee because of the advantage he is with name recognition and his financial resources.
As of September 2012:
According to trading at Intrade (a world-wide prediction market), President Obama has a very good chance. As of mid September 2012, President Obama is listed with a 66.3%likelihood to win the 2012 election and that trend is going up daily. They have his opponent, Governor Romney, at 33.2%likelihood with a continuing down trend.
It depends, if the economy is good he will likely stay in office, but if the economy doesn't get better (seems like we're getting out of a recession) he may not stay in office.
He has lost some of the Jewish voters and may not carry 96% of the black voters again. He has a tough race ahead of him.
If the GOP continues to field candidates that are seen as too extreme, Barack Obama will be re-elected. If he is, many will see it as a triumph over extremist and blatantly misogynistic politics.
Nate Silver, a now much more well known statistician, predicted the President's win before anyone else and was spot on about the win and about the wide margin of victory. He is a writer for the NY Times and has a blog there called the 538 Blog. Keep an eye on his predictions on various topics.
Barack Obama will be reelected because the Republicans didn't give him a chance and the American people are well aware of this.
Note about how intrade works for predictions:
The Intrade site (link is in related links section below) is the world's leading stock-trading-style market (called a "decision market" or "prediction market") which attempts to "trade" the likelihood of various people being the next president, in the same way people trade stocks. While certainly not a guarantee, it's a good way to see how people who actually bet money on an outcome (instead of just answering a random poll) predict who the next President will be.
With Intrade, these numbers don't necessarily have to add up to 100%, the numbers are based upon active "betting" with investment on one or the other to win the election. Many believe this is a better and more accurate way to determine what people are willing to put their money down for, as opposed to getting the numbers from polling opinions.
Wiki User
∙ 11y ago
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