== == There is no set probability for every 3-point shot. Every player has their own 3-point percentage, which is simply the number of 3-point shots made divided by the number of 3-point shots attempted. The average three point percentage is around 35%, while the generally high percentages are around 45%. Last I looked, the best 3-point percentage in the NBA was somewhere around 48%, which is ridiculously good. They give them 3 points for a reason; it's a very difficult shot to make with any measure of consistency. For the NBA (which has a longer 3 point shot than in college) an average shooting percentage is about 25%, while a good shooter may hit between 36 and 42%. Anything over this is extremely accurate, left to players who are considered shooting specialists who only shoot the ball when they are wide open. Scorers who must shoot often even if they are well defended often shoot a lesser percentage despite being considered accurate. Kobe Bryant currently shoots 36% from 3pt range.
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