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When we use linear regression to predict values, we input a given x value and we use the equation of the correlation line to predict the y values. Sometimes we want to know how spread out the y values are. We look at the difference between the predicted and the actual y values. These differences are called residual and they are either positive if the y value is more than the estimated y value or negative if it is less. So for example if the observed value is 10 and the predicted one is 15, the residual is 15-10=5. Now we can find the residual for each y value in our data set and square it. Then we can take the average of those squares. Last, we take the square root of the average of the squared residuals and this is the RMS or root mean square error.

The units are the same as the y values. If the RMS error is big, then the y values are not too close to the predicted ones on the y value and the our line does not provide as good of a model to predict values. If it is small, the y values are well predicted by the regression line.

For a horizontal line, the RMS error is the same as the standard deviation.

r is the regression coefficient and it measures how closely clustered the points are relative to the standard deviaton. The RMS error measures the spread in the original y units.

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Q: What is the significance of smaller Root mean square error?
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