What are the odds of a high school basketball player making it into the NBA?

There is a VERY SLIM chance of one making it to the NBA. Lets put it this way; there are 15 players on a basketball team in high school. There are around 10 schools in most school districts. Fifteen players X 10 schools = 150 players. There are only 60 players taken in every NBA draft. There are 150 players just in those schools, and that didn't even cover 1/1000th of the state. Only the best of the best make it into the NBA. There is a greater chance of collegiate scouts noticing high school players and the players making it into college, but into the NBA, very slim.


Okay let's explore. How many high schools are there in the world?

Now the boys.

Now the boys who play basketball for their team.

That's about 10,000,000 at any given time.

Now before going into the foreign markets, let's see how many Division 1 schools there are...312? 312 times 12 is about close to 4,900. Add the foreign markets -- given that many will be in the Division 1 colleges in the U.S., there's probably about say...500 then of high school hopefuls, old men in NDBL leagues and former NBA players attempting tryouts, for a grand total of about 5,400...

5,400 out of 10 FREAKING MILLION!!!

Now in college, keep in mind that you have to get good stats and have people notice you in order to have a shot at making the pros. So out of 5,400, there's 312 times 5 starters, 1560.

Now out of that 1560, many will be seen out east and are on teams that are in the top 25. That's ultra important. So 30 times 5, we've suddenly cut this pool of 1560 NBA wannabes down 90%!!!!! 156!!!!

Jealously must be insane with this group of 156 players. Because from here, the NBA only picks 60 players a year...and only about 40 make a team!!!

Therefore the final score here at Staples Center....

Making the NBA is a 40 in 10,000,000 shot.