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Ok, so hopefully the data copied well. The Mean Squared Error is the average of the squares of the error. It takes a few steps to get there. So lets say we have 20 weeks of sales data.

We would calculate a 4-week moving average starting with week 4. Then we extrapolate a forecast column. A forecast is the expected value. In a simple moving average, the expected value is the average for the preceeding week. I.e., Forecast = At-1 The error is simply the forecast minus the actual. Then the MSE can be calculated. In excel, the formulas SUMSQ will automatically square each value and sum it.

So if we want to find the MSE for the last 10 weeks (periods 11-20), then the formula would be =SUMSQ(error_range)/10

Period4-week Moving AveragetObservedA(t)ForecastErrorDeviationPercent173210637648986.00510694.2586.00-20.0020.0019%611396.0094.25-18.7518.7517%796101.0096.000.000.000%86695.25101.0035.0035.0053%910494.7595.25-8.758.758%107384.7594.7521.7521.7530%119785.0084.75-12.2512.2513%1211296.5085.00-27.0027.0024%1311799.7596.50-20.5020.5018%1484102.5099.7515.7515.7519%157998.00102.5023.5023.5030%166285.5098.0036.0036.0058%176071.2585.5025.5025.5043%189273.2571.25-20.7520.7523%196870.5073.255.255.258%208776.7570.50-16.5016.5019%MSEMADMAPEFor periods 11-20477.6320.3025.3%

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Q: How do you calculate mean squared error in Excel?
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