I'll give you the gist of Demand Analysis Forecasting: Demand analysis forecasting is the process estimation of quantity of a product or service that will be demanded by the customer in the future. Demand forecasting is carried out using both, informal methods, like educated guesses or quantitative methods that involve the use of historical data or existing data from the test markets. Demand forecasting helps in the formulation of pricing strategies, estimation of future product capacity and making crucial decisions relating to the entry or exit from new markets. Methods of Demand forecasting: Qualitative Methods: 1. Jury of expert opinion method 2. Delphi Method: *Developed by RAND Corp *Individuals are asked to answer questionnaires in a total of 2 to 3 rounds *The persons involved often maintain anonymity even after the test has been completed. Quantitative Methods: 1. Time series projection methods: *Trend projection method *Exponential smoothing method *Moving average method Casual methods: 1. Chain ratio method 2. Consumption level method 3 End use method 4.Leading indicator method
You can compare forecasting methods by one of these methods: 1- MAD(mean absolute deviation) 2-MSE (mean square error) 3-MAPE(mean absolute percentage error) Notes: 1-MAD is the preferred method since it does not require squaring the errors and this is the only difference between MAD and MSE . 2-If you want to relate the error relative to the actual demand use MAPE that is because in MAPE you will divide the error by the actual demand.
There are 2 types of methods. Subjective & Objective methods. SUBJECTIVE: 1) Jury or Executive Opinion 2) Sales Force Opinion OBJECTIVE: 1) Trend Analysis or Extrapolation 2) Regression Analysis 3) Growth or External Financing Requirement 4) Sustainable Growth Rate 5) Computerized Financial Planning Systems
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