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The purpose of PERT Analysis is to identify an estimate for an activity.
This method addresses the issue of uncertainty in estimating the activity duration. The uncertainty in the duration estimate can be calculated by making a three-point estimate in which each point corresponds to one of the following estimate types:
• Most likely scenario - The activity duration is calculated in most practical terms by factoring in resources likely to be assigned, realistic expectations of the resources, dependencies, and interruptions.
• Optimistic scenario - This is the best-case version of the situation described in the most likely scenario.
• Pessimistic scenario - This is the worst-case version of the situation described in the most likely scenario.
The spread of these three estimates determines the uncertainty. The resultant duration is calculated by taking the average of the three estimates. For example, if the duration for an activity is estimated to be 20 days for the most likely scenario, 15 days for the optimistic scenario, and 25 days for the pessimistic scenario, then the average duration is 20 days, and the uncertainty is ± 5 days, which can be expressed as:
Duration = 20 ± 5 days
It's equivalent to saying that the activity duration is 20 days, give or take five days.
However, the most likely scenario may be given more weight than the other two scenarios. Therefore, the expected duration can be calculated by using the following formula:
ED = ((N*MD) + OD + PD)/(N+2)
Here
ED = Expected Duration
MD = Most likely Duration
OD = Optimistic Duration
PD = Pessimistic Duration
N = Weightage for the Most likely Duration
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