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If February 5th is a national holiday, the chances are very high that schools will be closed, though not all schools close for every national holiday. An unscientific guess would be a 95% to 99% chance that school would be closed.

The chances of a weather-related closing is impossible to even guess with any accuracy at all until February 3rd or 4th. If the weather is not snowy or icy, there is almost 100% chance that schools will not be closed. If there is snow, it depends on how much, how slick the roads are, etc. A 50-50 chance is a good guess until all factors can be considered. If it's icy and the roads are very slick and hazardous, the chances of schools closing is almost 100%. School systems just are not likely to send students out when the road conditions are really bad.

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Q: What is the chance schools will be closed on Thursday fifth February?
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