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First of all, we know that climate scientists believe that global warming is real and that it is caused principally by human activity. In a poll of scientists in different fields conducted by Doran and Kendall Zimmerman in 2009, 97 per cent of those who published at least half of their peer-reviewed research in the climate field agreed that human activity was significant in changing global temperature. Anderegg et al., in 2010, similarly found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists went along with the international panels' consensus.

Scientists base that belief on very strong data. The year 2010 had the warmest global average temperature on record, fractionally warmer than 2005 and 1998, but as the difference is slight, the three years are regarded as the equal hottest. The past decade was the warmest since instrumental measurement began in 1850, and the ten warmest years since 1850 have now all occurred since 1998.

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