black box theory

An understanding of something entirely in terms of its function. This leaves on one side the question of what the mechanism is that enables it to perform that function. The thing is treated as a black box whose workings are invisible. A black box theory of science, for example, would treat a scientific theory simply as a formalism, or a mere device for delivering predictions from data; a black box theory of the mind would take it that the mind is exhaustively understood once we know which inputs yield which outputs.

Earning luck this way will help when the chips are down
You’ve probably noticed that some boaters have fewer accidents than others. Their boats survive storms in which other boats founder. Their engines keep going when others fail. And when they do get into trouble, it’s never serious. Why?Some people call it luck, but in my opinion, there is no such thing as fortuitous luck at sea. You have to earn your “luck” by constant and deliberate acts of seamanship. If that sounds difficultand complicated, don’t let it bother you. This is how I see it:On every boat there’s an imaginary black box. Every time you do something seamanlike, you earn a point for the black box. For example, you get a point for taking the trouble to inspect the chart before you enter an anchorage, and another point for having the right chart in the first place. You earn points for going forward on a cold stormy night to check your running lights, or for changing the fuel filter on your engine on schedule, or for hundreds of other menial and sometimes troublesome little tasks that you would rather not do.In times of stress—in heavy weather or other threatening circumstances where human skill and endurance can accomplish no more to help the ship—the points are cashed in as protection. You don’t have to oversee their withdrawal; they withdraw themselves as appropriate.Those skippers with no points in the box get into trouble. They’re later described as “unlucky”—but we know better. Those skippers with points in the box will survive and be called “lucky,” although luck had nothing to do with it. However, having survived, they will need to immediately replenish the points in the black box because the sea offers no credit.See also Seamanship; Unlucky Colors.

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