Forecast uncertainty

The prediction cone, also known as the cone of uncertainty, comes from meteorology and hurricane forecasting. It represents the potential path a hurricane could take while accounting for forecasting errors. The cone widens over time to account for the increasing uncertainty in predicting the exact track of the storm.

The cone indicates uncertainty in the path of the hurricane. The center line of the cone indicates the expected path of the storm, but it might go a given amount to the left or right of that path.

The track forecast cone represents the uncertainty in the path a hurricane will take. The more days in advance you try to predict a hurricane, the less certain you are about where it will be. The result is a cone shape.

The track forecast cone represents the uncertainty in the path a hurricane will take. The more days in advance you try to predict a hurricane, the less certain you are about where it will be. The result is a cone shape.