The study of the diffusion of innovation is the study of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures.
This research topic began in the 1950s at the University of Chicago with funding from television producers who sought a way to
measure the effectiveness of broadcast advertising. It soon became apparent that advertised products or services were
"innovations" in the culture. The general result of the study was that the most influential channel of influence was not from
some broadcast medium, but down a echelon of levels, from a small number of "early adopters" to a larger number of "secondary
adopters", and from them to "tertiary adopters", then to "quadranary adopters", etc. There was also lateral influence within each
level. Broadcast messages could reinforce the propagation from one adopter level down to the next, but lower levels are unlikely
to respond until the level above them has adopted. It found that people were more likely to adopt, or even consider adopting, if
people they know and respect have adopted. Imitation is the strongest influence channel. Therefore, the most effective marketing
strategy is to first sell to the early adopters, then reinforce the diffusion to each successive level, but not to waste
resources on trying to reach any given level before it is ready for it.
The field has been expanded to examine competitive diffusion processes, in which the diffusion of some innovation stimulates
an opposing innovation that also diffuses in competition with the first. Examples of this can include competing products,
political candidates, religions, etc. It is sometimes useful to characterize the propensity of an innovation to diffuse with a
"coefficient of diffusion". Thus, the course of events in Viet Nam in the 1950s and 1960s can be described in terms that the
meme of nationalism had a higher coefficient of diffusion than
constitutional republican government.
Competitive diffusion processes have been simulated by various games, such as the Pendulous family of simulated war games, in which control of the most
territory on the board is the object of the game, and play consists of encouraging the spread of "forces" that occupy
positions.
The S-Curve and technology adoption
The adoption curve becomes an s-curve when cumulative adoption is used.
Rogers theorized that innovations would spread through society in an S curve, as
the early adopters select the technology first, followed by the majority, until a technology or innovation is common.
The speed of technology adoption is determined by two characteristics p, which is the speed at which adoption takes
off, and q, the speed at which later growth occurs. A cheaper technology might have a higher p, for example, taking
off more quickly, while a technology that has network effects (like a fax machine, where
the value of the item increases as others get it) may have a higher q.
Caveats and criticisms
Critics of this model have suggested that it is an overly simplified representation of a complex reality. [citation needed]
A number of other phenomena can influence innovation adoption rates, such as -
- Customers often adapt technology to their own needs, so the innovation may actually change in nature from the early adopters
to the majority of users.
- Disruptive technologies may radically change the diffusion patterns for
established technology by starting a different competing S-curve.
- Lastly, path dependence may lock certain technologies in place, as in the
QWERTY keyboard.
See also
References
External links
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