leading indicator

A measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. Leading indicators are used to predict changes in the economy, but are not always accurate.

Investopedia Says:
Bond yields are typically a good leading indicator of the market because traders anticipate and speculate trends in the economy.

Related Links:
The economy has a large impact on the market, so investors should know how to interpret these eleven indicators. Economic Indicators to Know
Here we examine some telling patterns in the relation between countries' interest rates and their currency pairs. Bond Spreads: A Leading Indicator For Forex
Find out which currencies are most affected by fluctuations in gold and oil prices and improve your trading. Commodity Prices And Currency Movements

Components of indicators released monthly by the Conference Board, along with the Index of Lagging Indicators and the Index of Coincident Indicators. The 11 components are: the average workweek of production workers; average weekly claims for state unemployment insurance; manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; vendor performance (companies receiving slower deliveries from suppliers); contracts and orders for plant and equipment; building permits; change in manufacturers' unfilled orders for durable goods; changes in sensitive materials prices; stock prices; Money Supply (M-2); and index of consumer expectations. The index of leading indicators, the components of which are adjusted for inflation, accurately forecasts the ups and downs of the business cycle.