Next Eleven

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N-11 nations in red. From left: Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines

The Next Eleven (N-11) are the eleven countries—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam—identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank and economist Jim O'Neill in a research paper as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.

The criteria that Goldman Sachs used were macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging "BRIC" economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.^[1] It can be compared with the CIVETS list coined by Robert Ward, Global Forecasting Director for the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)—having a few differences, but many similarities—as well as the G20 developing nations.

Next Eleven countries

Developed countries

• South Korea: Advanced economy (both CIA and IMF), High-income economy,^[2] Very High human development, High-income OECD member, Developed market (in: Dow Jones index, FTSE index, and S&P index),^[3] Full democracy, Development Assistance Committee member, G-20 major economies, Four Asian Tigers, KORUS FTA, European Union-Korea FTA, Visa Waiver Program participant, APEC founding member, ASEAN Plus Three founding member, EAS founding member

Newly industrializing countries

• Iran: Upper-middle-income economy,^[4] High human development, authoritarian Islamic Republic, OPEC and GECF founding member, ECO member, Group of 15 member, Developing 8 Countries
• Mexico: Upper-middle-income economy,^[2] High human development, OECD member, Advanced Emerging market,^[5] G-20 major economies, G8+5 member, NAFTA, APEC member, EAS founding member
• Philippines: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Flawed democracy, ASEAN founding member, APEC Founding member
• Turkey: Upper-middle-income economy,^[2] High human development, democracy, OECD founding member, Advanced Emerging market,^[5] G-20 major economies, EU Customs Union, ECO member, EU associate member, Developing 8 Countries

Developing countries

• Indonesia: Upper-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Flawed democracy, G-20 major economies, APEC founding member, ASEAN founding member, EAS founding member, Developing 8 Countries
• Egypt: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Regime in transition, G20 developing nations, CAEU founding member, COMESA member, ENP member, Developing 8 Countries
• Nigeria: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Frontier market,^[6] Flawed Democracy, AU member, OPEC member, Developing 8 Countries, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member
• Pakistan: Lower-middle-income economy,^[7] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,^[5] Hybrid Regime, G20 developing nations, SAARC founding member, ECO member, Developing 8 Countries
• Vietnam: Lower-middle-income economy,^[2] Fast emerging, Medium human development, Frontier market,^[6] Authoritarian regime,^[8] APEC member, ASEAN member, EAS founding member.

Least developed countries

• Bangladesh: Low-income economy,^[2] Medium human development, Frontier market, SAARC founding member IOR-ARC member, Developing 8 Countries

Most featured

South Korea and United Korea

Despite being a developed country, South Korea has been growing at a speed comparable to Brazil and Turkey. More importantly, it has a significantly higher Growth Environment Score (Goldman Sachs' way of measuring the long-term sustainability of growth) than all of the BRICs or N-11s.^[9] Commentators such as William Pesek, Jr. from Bloomberg argue that Korea is "Another 'BRIC' in Global Wall", suggesting that it stands out from the Next Eleven economies (N-11). South Korea will overtake Canada by 2025 and Italy by 2035 according to their paper "The N-11: More Than an Acronym".^[10] Economists from other investment firms argue that Korea will have a GDP per capita of over $90,000 by 2050, virtually identical to the United States and the second highest among the G7, BRIC, and N-11 economies, suggesting that wealth is more important than size for bond investors, stating that Korea's credit rating will be rated AAA sooner than 2050.^[11]

Pyongyang, North Korea

Korea in 2050^[12]

	United Korea	South Korea	North Korea
GDP in USD	$6.056 trillion	$4.073 trillion	$1.982 trillion
GDP per capita	$86,000	$96,000	$70,000
GDP growth (2010–2050)	4.1%	3.3%	12.4%
Total population	71 million	42 million	28 million

In September 2009, Goldman Sachs published its 188th Global Economics Paper named "A United Korea?" which highlighted in detail the potential economic power of a United Korea, which will surpass all current G7 countries except the United States, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France within 30–40 years of reunification, estimating GDP to surpass $6 trillion by 2050.^[13] Cheap, skilled labor from the North combined with advanced technology and infrastructure in the South, as well as Korea's strategic location connecting three economic powers, is likely going to create an economy larger than the bulk of the G7. According to some opinions, a reunited Korea could occur before 2050,^[13] or even between 2010 and 2020.^[14] If it occurred, Korean reunification would immediately raise the country's population to over 70 million.^{[citation needed]}

Mexico

Mexico City, Mexico

Primarily, along with the BRICs,^[15] Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, and China is such that they may become (with the USA) the six most dominant economies by the year 2050. Due to Mexico's rapidly advancing infrastructure, increasing middle class, and rapidly declining poverty rates, it is expected to have a GDP per capita close to that of Japan or Germany by 2050, this new found local wealth also contributes to the nation's economy by creating a large domestic consumer market which in turn creates more jobs.

Mexico in 2050^[16]

	Mexico
GDP in USD	$9.340 trillion
GDP per capita	$63,149
GDP growth (2015–2050)	4.0%
Total population	148 million

Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia

Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country after China, India, and the USA. In 2009, BRIC and Indonesia represented about 42 and 3 percent of the world's population respectively and about 15 percent of global GDP altogether. All of them are G20 countries. By 2015, Internet users in BRIC and Indonesia will double to 1.2 billion.^[17][18] At 2009, Indonesia was the only member of the G20 to lower its public debt-to-GDP ratio: a positive economic management indicator.^[19]

October 2010: Wealth has surged in emerging markets in Asia Pacific, especially India and Indonesia. In the last ten years, the total wealth of India has tripled to $3.5 trillion while that of Indonesia has grown fivefold to $1.8 trillion. The inaugural report by the Credit Suisse Research Institute defines wealth as the value of financial assets and non-financial assets (mainly real estate), minus household debt.^[20]

Indonesia in 2050^[21]

	Indonesia
GDP in USD	$7.010 trillion
GDP per capita	$23,090[22]
GDP growth (2015–2050)	6.7%
Total population	240 million

Pakistan

Karachi, Pakistan

Pakistan is the world's sixth most populous country after China, India, USA, Indonesia, and Brazil. With most of the population working in agriculture, it is a nation with a partially democratic system though, as of 2011, GDP growth was steady during the mid-2000s at a rate of 7%; however, slowed down during the Economic crisis of 2008 to 4.7%. A large inflation rate of 24.4% and a low savings rate, and other economic factors, continue to make it difficult to sustain a high growth rate. Pakistan's GDP is US$167 billion, which makes it the 48th-largest economy in the world or 27th largest by purchasing power adjusted exchange rates. Today, Pakistan is regarded as to having the second largest economy in South Asia. The structure of the Pakistani economy has changed from a mainly agricultural base to a strong service base. Agriculture now only accounts for roughly 20% of the GDP, while the service sector accounts for 53% of the GDP. Significant foreign investments have been made in several areas including telecommunications, real estate and energy. Other important industries include apparel and textiles (accounting for nearly 60% of exports), food processing, chemicals manufacture, and the iron and steel industries.Pakistan's exports in 2008 amounted to $20.62 billion (USD)and in 2011 amounted to $25 billion (USD). Pakistan is a rapidly developing country. ^{[23][24][25][26]}

Pakistan in 2050

	Pakistan
GDP in USD	$3.085 trillion
GDP per capita	$15,066
GDP growth (2015–2050)	6.8%
Total population	210 million

Philippines

Metro Manila, Philippines.

Financially aided by the United States after the destructive World War II, the country emerged as Asia's 2nd largest economy after Japan from mid-1940s to early 1980s, in which at that time, China and South Korea, today's one of the world's largest economies, had not yet showed up economically. However, due to political instability and ineffective economic policies, notably during the years of martial law, the Philippine economy became one of the continent's poorest. The Philippines has the world's 12th largest population. Nowadays, it has been classified as a newly industrialized country. Once called the "Sick Man of Asia", the nation is one of Asia's Tiger Cub Economies due to considerable economic reforms in late 1990s and early 2000s. The country is experiencing recent economic changes already and needs are rapidly fulfilled. It had shown its economic stability in facing financial crises, particularly during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.^[27] According to Goldman Sachs, the Philippine economy will become the 14th largest economy in the world by 2050.^[28][29]

The Philippines in 2050^[16]

	The Philippines
GDP in USD	$3.010 trillion
GDP per capita	$20,388
GDP growth (2015–2050)	5.2%
Total population	148 million

See also

References

Further reading

• "The N-11: More Than an Acronym" – Goldman Sachs study of N-11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007.

External links

• Development Bank Research Bulletin article