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Semivariance

 
Investment Dictionary: Semivariance

A measure of the dispersion of all observations that fall below the mean or target value of a data set. Semivariance is an average of the squared deviations of values that are less than the mean. The formula for semivariance is as follows:



Where:
n = the total number of observations below the mean
r = the observed value
average = the mean or target value of the data set

Investopedia Says:
Semivariance is similar to variance; however, it only considers observations below the mean. A useful tool in portfolio or asset analysis, semivariance provides a measure for downside risk. While standard deviation and variance provide measures of volatility, semivariance only looks at the negative fluctuations of an asset. By neutralizing all values above the mean, or an investor's target return, semivariance estimates the average loss that a portfolio could incur.

For risk averse investors, solving for optimal portfolio allocations by minimizing semivariance would limit the likelihood of a large loss.

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Wikipedia: Semivariance
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In spatial statistics, the empirical semivariance is described by

\hat\gamma(h)=\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{1}{n(h)}\sum_{i=1}^{n(h)}(z(x_i+h)-z(x_i))^2

where z is a datum at a particular location, h is the distance between ordered data, and n(h) is the number of paired data at a distance of h. The semivariance is half the variance of the increments z(xi + h) − z(xi), but the whole variance of z-values at given separation distance h (Bachmaier and Backes, 2008).

A plot of semivariances versus distances between ordered data in a graph is known as a semivariogram rather than a variogram. Many authors call 2\hat\gamma(h) a variogram, others use the terms variogram and semivariogram synonymously. However, Bachmaier and Backes (2008), who discussed this confusion, have shown that \hat\gamma(h) should be called a variogram, terms like semivariogram or semivariance should be avoided. This also shall become the guideline of the agricultural journal Precision Agriculture.

Contents

Controversy

In situ or temporally ordered sets give df(o) = 2(n − 1) degrees of freedom for the first variance term. The semivariance is an invalid measure for variability, precision and risk because the sum of squared differences between x and x + h is divided by n, the number of data in the set, but it ought to be divided by df(o) = 2(n − 1), the degrees of freedom for the first variance term (see Ref 2).

The statement that only measured values below the mean are included in the semivariance makes no statistical sense (see Ref 4). Clark, in her Practical Geostatistics, which can be downloaded from her website, proposed that the factor 2 be moved for mathematical convenience and berates those who refer to variograms rather than semi-variograms.

See also

References

  • Bachmaier, M and Backes, M, 2008, "Variogram or Semivariogram — Explaining the Variances in a Variogram". Article DOI: 10.1007/s11119-008-9056-2, Precision Agriculture, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York.
  • Clark, I, 1979, Practical Geostatistics, Applied Science Publishers
  • David, M, 1978, Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation, Elsevier Publishing
  • Hald, A, 1952, Statistical Theory with Engineering Applications, John Wiley & Sons, New York
  • Journel, A G and Huijbregts, Ch J, 1978 Mining Geostatistics, Academic Press
  • Merks, J W and Merks E A T, "Precision Estimates for Ore Reserves", Erzmetall, Vol 44, Nov 1991.
  • Merks, J W, "Abuse of Statistics", CIM Bulletin, Jan 1993.
  • Merks, J W, Applied Statistics in Mineral Exploration, Mining Engineering, Feb 1997
  • Merks, J W, "Borehole Statistics with Spreadsheet Software", SME Transactions 2000, Vol 308

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