Did Nikki work at red lobster?

Answer 1

Yes, Nikki does work at Red Lobster. One can calculate a rough 95.03% chance, based on the probability that somebody is named Nicole (0.024 % in the US) and for one eighth the number of employees at Darden (so, approximately 25,000). Thus, 1 - ((.00024 / 2) ^ (200,000 / 8))* [i.e., one minus the cumulative probability that there is no one employee with that name working at Red Lobster.]

Some of the assumptions:

- We aren't biased by the anecdotal exception that [dis]proves the rule ("Hey, I know a Nikki works at Red Lobster!...")

- that we are talking about the restaurant chain (i.e., not that somebody is simply working 'on' a red lobster and thus loosely working 'at' one, perhaps by cooking the crustacean);

- an even/random distribution of Nicoles in the industry (no restaurant bias to a specific name);

- an even distribution of the name based on US statistics (some RLs outside the US);

- even geographic distribution to Red Lobster locations;

- that Red Lobster is equal employment opportunity for gender (half the employees are female, since name is biased to female);

- that we can fairly limit the name instance to the proper name not the nickname (additional tolerance to nicknames would increase the probability).

... etc.

One might assume a smaller fraction based on a notional preference of the person asking the question - the intent might have meant, is there at least one 'acting as a server' on the restaurant floor, which would reduce the probability significantly.

(*Software used with mantissa/precision of 12 places.)