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The United States has more than 65 active or potentially active volcanoes, more than those of all other countries except Indonesia and Japan. During the twentieth century, volcanic eruptions in Alaska, California, Hawaii, and Washington devastated thousands of square kilometers of land, caused substantial economic and societal disruption and, in some instances, loss of life. More than 50 U.S. volcanoes have erupted one or more times in the past 200 years (Figure 1.1). Worldwide, approximately 550 volcanoes have had historically documented eruptions; at least 1,300 have erupted in the Holocene (past 10,000 years) (Simkin et al., 2000).

Eruptions do not affect only the area immediately surrounding a volcano. Ashfall can devastate areas downwind; ash clouds from major explosive eruptions can threaten large numbers of aircraft along well-traveled flight paths especially across the North Pacific; and large eruptions influence global climate and agricultural production. Recently, there have been major advances in our understanding of how volcanoes work. This is partly because of detailed studies of eruptions and partly because of advances in global communications, remote sensing, and interdisciplinary cooperation (Simkin et al., 2000).

The study of volcanoes is both empirical and probabilistic. Scientists look at what has happened in the past and attempt to predict what will happen in the future. The same could be said about this study of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP): determining the future of the VHP requires a combination of careful observations and educated projections. The hypothetical news releases in Prologues 1 and 2 represent two strongly contrasting views of the ways the VHP might respond to a large volcanic eruption in the year 2010. If hiring patterns, budget decisions, and other trends that are rooted in

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