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A recent study (2014) by Yale University asked Americans which of these Mental Models was closest to their own perception of the Earth's climate.

  1. Fragile: Earth's climate is delicately balanced. Small amounts of global warming will have abrupt and catastrophic effects.
  2. Threshold: Earth's climate is stable within certain limits. If global warming is small, climate will return to a stable balance; if it is large, there will be dangerous effects.
  3. Gradual: Earth's climate is slow to change. Global warming will gradually lead to dangerous effects.
  4. Random: Earth's climate is random and unpredictable. We do not know what will happen.
  5. Stable: Earth's climate system is very stable. Global warming will have little or no effects.

Most people (34%) chose number 2, Threshold, believing that they think the more the climate warms, the worse the effects will be.

All answers:

  1. Fragile 11%
  2. Threshold 34%
  3. Gradual 24%
  4. Random 21%
  5. Stable 10%

See the link below.

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