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Scientists looks at a number of hurricanes. First, they have to know where the hurrican ie going to go. Then they try to figure out what condtions will be like in that area when the hurricane is expected to arrive. Here are factors that affect hurricane strength, which meteoroligsts will look at.

  • Sea Surface temperatures: Hurricanes need warm water to intensify and to maintain their strength. Very warm water can lead to rapid intensification while cold water will weaken a hurricane.
  • Depth of warm water: Hurricanes often churn up the ocean surface and bring up cold water from down below, which can lead to weakening. This is less likely to happen if the warm layer is more than 200 meters deep.
  • Humidity: Humid air is needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength. Entrainment of dry air can weaken a hurricane or prevent it from strengthening.
  • Wind Shear: This is a difference in wind speed and direction at different altitudes. A hurricane will have the most opportunity to strengthen if there is little to no wind shear. Strong wind shear can distort the structure of a hurricane, causing it to weaken rapdily even if all other factors are favorable for strengthening.
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