The best way is to use the worksheets and instruction that go with Form 1040-ES.
Available at www.irs.gov and many other places.
One of the most popular tax programs that is used for an estimate on a tax refund is the program called Turbo Tax, but any place with this kind of consulting would be able to give you an estimate.
You can estimate your Tax Liability online on Virginia.gov. Tax Liability online helps you to determine your estimated tax liability and how many payments you should make.
I do not know the math formula, but I do have a calculator over here: http://www.1040.com/tax-tools/tax-estimator/ Hope it can help you estimate your tax refund.
I, myself use Turbo tax. Turbo tax will estimate and fill your taxes, or you may want to go to your local tax advisor.There are free tax services to help you.
You can always get an estimate on how much in state tax returns you will receive, however, in order to get an exact estimate, you will need to go to a tax specialist.
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A great program to estimate your tax return is turbo tax home and business. You can also use a free estimator online such as http://www.efile.com/tax-service/tax-calculator/ to get a rough idea of how much your return will be.
Many companies such as H&R Block and Turbo Tax offer assistance online. The IRS also provides an online tool to estimate taxes.
Go to www.carmax.com They have a "tax, license, etc." tool to figure out an estimate.