How do scientist accurately predict a hurricane?

Answer 1

Hurricanes, also knwon as tyhpoons or tropcial cyclones in diffrerent parts of the world, is one of the most destructive natural hazrads in the world in terms of frequentcy and number of death, especially as 75% of world's population is densly populated within 100km from the coasts.

So there is case for predicting the hurricanes, if it is dangerous to human.

Prediction of hurricanes are often easier than that of other natural disasters such as earthquakes.

Most conventional way is weather records. Past and present data can be used to construct recurrance relations and intervals (though it usually happens anually anyways). This method is relatively cheap, but still, some poor LDCs might not be able to afford it. This method relies on the richness of data, agian, which LDCs may not have. Moreover, it does not have any early warning values as it simply tells likelyhood of hurricanes and fails to precisely measure when and where.

With development of technology, satellite images are now more frequently used. Not only it exactly tells us where, it also tells us roughly the size and intensity of the hurricane. However, again, this method is very expensive for LDCs and require specialist knowledge. In addition, though highly precise than weather records, it is still subject to inaccuracy as hurricanes may changes its direction. Nonetheless, for those who can use it, it is very useful tool in predicting hurricanes. The National Weather Service (NWS) and National Hurricane Centre (NHC) forecasted Hurricane Katrina, for example, using satellite image even 56 hours before its land. However, in case of Hurricane Katrina, it suddenly changed its direction slightly before its landing.

Lastly, remote sensing can be used. Aircraft can fly over the hurricane and measure humidity, temperature, pressure and other information about hurricane and acquire its intensity before its landing. But again, this method is expensive and require special knowledge and tools, which LDCs may not be able to afford it.

So these three ways are how hurricanes are predicted.