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'm not sure what your asking but I will attempt to explain what I believe you are saying... If event "x" happens and the data is recorded... By making assumptions based on facts that are known a person can conclude "y" hypothesis is the cause, however if no experiment can be done to test this or if the experiment cannot take into account extraneous and confounding variables, then the hypothesis is unable to be tested and remains an "educated guess"... There are ways around this however... Large diverse sample sizes eliminate the possibility that it is just some random occurrence brought by something else for example..

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Q: How does a scientist explain something when a controlled experiment when a controlled experiment cannot be carried out?
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