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This article gives a good idea of the number of novels published annually, broken down in various ways: http://workproduct.wordpress.com/2009/10/14/how-many-novels-are-published-each-year/. The author doesn't specify what percentage of these is first novels, but his article will get you part of the way there: if you can find that percentage elsewhere, and multiply, you'll have your answer. - JimmyKalash

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