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Depending on assumptions about the population of the Roman Empire at the outbreak of the plague (typically 60 million but as high as 100 million in some estimates), the identification with smallpox and similar virulence to the modern form, which exhibited a mortality in the 25-30% range, and the extent of epidemic penetration (some areas would have lacked the population density to support transmission), the absolute mortality that could be attributed to the disease would be in the range of 12-25 million.

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