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I'd say that your chances are close to 100%.

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Q: If you are a felon and been in prison twice for drug possession and get arrested the third time for it do you go to prison?
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How much jail time could you get for third marijuana possession in Virginia if your a nonviolent felon?

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I was just released from death row prison in Texas called Huntsville unit, also known as the walls unit. I'm a convicted felon now and your question needs to be more specific. Arrested for a misdemeanor? A second strike felony or third strike is 25 to life. At least in Texas its called enhanced or enhancement


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