Is the 2009 flu stronger than the 1976 Swine Flu?

Answer 1

The Swine Flu outbreak in 1976 at the Fort Dix, New Jersey military base was feared to be potentially extremely deadly, and the government reacted quickly then because those first affected were young, healthy soldiers. This was so different from the normal seasonal flu that the quick action may have been, in hind sight, an overreaction due to the unexpected demographic group being affected. These previously healthy victims of that flu strain quickly developed pneumonia. One died as a result. The virus was thought to have circulated approximately a month in the close quarters of the group in basic training but not outside the group, then it disappeared. But there was great concern at the time that it might resurface and be even more deadly; that is what prompted the hastily set up and infamous vaccination program of 1976.

Since the 2009 outbreak has spread faster and farther, and as of early June 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it to meet the criteria to be called a pandemic, the comparison now makes it clear that the 2009 A-H1N1/09 virus is stronger and has claimed many more lives than the 1976 flu.

And, in another comparison, while the first wave of the 2009 pandemic has been milder by far than the end result of the 1918 pandemic, the first wave of that 1918 Spanish Flu was also mild. The very high death rates of the Spanish Flu did not actually begin until a second wave. This is why the governments of the world are watching the A-H1N1/09 virus with concern that it may turn into a rapidly spreading and more deadly version in the Northern Hemisphere's 2009 fall flu season.

Very rough estimates of the mortality rate of the pandemic A-H1N1/09 influenza have now been calculated from statistics gathered by a French study in late August 2009. This was reported in the Public Library of Science (PLOS). There have been problems in determining exactly how many cases of the flu have occurred unrecognized due to the milder symptoms, unreported, and/or unconfirmed. The one study so far to attempt that, has come up with figures to make a rough estimate. Based on their findings, the Novel Swine Flu is 100 times more virulent than the typical seasonal flu.

The data suggested that there is 1 death in 10,000 cases from A-H1N1/09 compared to 1 in 1,000,000 from seasonal flu strains. This is what gave the prior mentioned indications of A-H1N1/09 being 100 times more virulent than seasonal flu, with a mortality rate of the 2009 pandemic flu of 0.01%.

The math from the CDC's prior counts of seasonal flu deaths and cases, however, gave a typical mortality rate of the seasonal flu as 0.12%. Based upon the above study, the mortality rate of the seasonal flu would be more like 0.0001%. So, obviously, there is still more to gather and learn and evaluate before the strength of the current pandemic can be properly compared to other flu outbreaks.

As the 1976 flu did, the 2009 flu is affecting younger rather than older people. The elderly, who are typically weaker and more susceptible to infection, are not getting the swine flu as often (unless there are underlying chronic conditions such as asthma or chronic obstructive lung disease, see related questions below for the full list of high risk conditions). Mostly, it is people between the ages of 5 and 24 that are likely to contract the Novel H1N1 Flu, with the group most often having it falling in the late teen years.

Unlike the 1968 outbreak, we have identified this pandemic from much earlier in the outbreak, and are monitoring it more closely while it is occurring, than any epidemics or pandemics of the past. The work that the WHO and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have done to help nations prepare for pandemics is evident in the response. Also, we have access to better antivirals than we did in past flu epidemics/pandemics.

Of course, this is not yet finished, more waves of the A-H1N1/09 pandemic are expected, which may be even more deadly, so we can not know until the end just how virulent this virus might mutate to be. The health ministries and other Government entities are still saying that it could be bigger and stronger than any before.

The best recommendation is to get the "Swine Flu" shot when it becomes available to your location and for your risk group so that you will have immunity, which is especially important for those in the high risk groups.

Answer 2

Can't be because this is the first time H1N1 is here. In the beginning ppl thought it was swineflu like the one pigs get but it's not even related.