What are the statistics on repeat sex offenders?

Answer 1

Old Data:Statistics vary according to the type of sex offense studied, population studied, method of inquiry, formulas used, and other factors, resulting in widely varying answers to that question. Experts generally agree, however, that all statistical analyses are unreliable due to under-reporting of sexual assault. According to the Department of Justice, law enforcement officials estimate only 1:3 - 1:5 victims report the crime to police, meaning as much as 66-80% of sex crimes go undetected.

Study 1, Range Indicated by Crime

5-year recidivism rate

Incest..........................................4-10% (reoffend within five years)

Rape........................................... 7-35%

Child molestation/female victim......10-29%

Child molestation/male victim........13-40%

Exhibitionists...............................41-71%

Meta-Analysis

Researchers Hanson and Bussiere conducted a meta-analysis of 61 studies, and concluded the aggregate four-to-five-year recidivism rate for rapists is 18.9% and for child molesters 12.7%. The likelihood of reoffense increases the longer the person remains in the community, with some estimates indicating a 39% lifetime recidivism rate for rapists and 52% for child molesters.

For more detailed information you can access the Center for Sex Offender Management, Department of Justice, report via Related Links, below.

New Update:I've intentionally left the information above to help illustrate the problem here.

Over the past two decades the seriosness (rate of offense) and recidivism rates of sex offenders has been intentionally inflated by the media, government representatives (DOC bureaucrats and politicians), and those enlisted as expert wtnesses (especially those involved in the development of forensic models). Reasons vary from basic greed, to personal asperations. Recently, it has come to light that most of the primary assessment tools, including those used by the USDOJ and state criminal courts, are flawed and suffer from inflated threat assessment built into them by their authors.

The FactsBased on the raw data provided by the DOJ Bureau of Statistics 1994 study on recidivism rates and newer state level data, actual recidivism rates have declined in the past twenty years. Across the board, sex offenders are likely to reoffend at about 3.2% in the first three years from release. This falls to around 1.7% at five years from release, and even further to statistically zero after five years. The additional factor of age is perhaps the most important determinant of the threat of repeat offense. At forty to fifty years old, a number of pysiological, emotional, social, and psychological elements make the liklihood of a repeat offense even less likely. Offenders' support structures and secure employment further reduce recidivism; factors not even considered by the Static99 tool, the most commonly utilized predictive model.

Dr. Karen Franklin, one of the leading forensic psychologists in the US (see her related link below), has written and spoken extensively on the subject of sex offender recidivism. A number of her articles and research by others in the field is discussed in greater detail at the Forensic Psycholgy link below.