In statistics, a forecast error is the difference between the actual or real and the predicted or forecast value of a time series or any other phenomenon of interest.
Exponential Smoothing Model
obswervation inaccuracies
Inventory that is carried as a cushion to protect against forecast error.
A bank manager would want to see a businesses cash flow forecast due to several reasons as:- It will show whether the business is Ina good financial position or not. It will lead the manager to decide whether to lend a bank loan or not. The bank manager can see how the business was existing for a period of time. After looking at the cash flow forecast the manager can decide whether to let the business have transactions with the bank or not. It will also show how the business have been utilizing their profits in a profitable way and also seeing whether the buisness is holding too much of cash.
A forecast is a statement of the expected outcome of a given set of events. It follows then that a financial forecast is a statement of the expected outcome in financial terms of a given set of (assumed) events. A budget is a financial forecast based on a plan set by management. Thus, a business may prepare a budget that forecasts a revenue of, say, USD 10 million and a net income of USD 1 million, if all its strategies and actions happened as planned, and assumptions made (such as interest rate) occur. The budget is used by the management to control the business going forward. On the other hand, a financial forecast that is not a budget may be produced by the business for a different purpose, e.g. to provide a bank creditor with an idea of how the business will perform going forward. Such forecast can be varied depending on how optimistic or conservative the maker wants it to be. Thus, for the same business in the example above, a conservative forecast may be prepared for an investor that indicates a revenue of USD 9 million and a net income of USD 750,000.
A sales forecast is crucial to a business. This is an integral part of both short and long financial and/or operational plans. A sales forecast falls under the category of "setting objectives" for a business. This way, the business is able to put things into perspective to see its possibilities in terms of revenue and streamline all other operations based on that. For example, having an accurate and realistic sales forecast comprised of many factors such as season, economic situation and consumer demographics, will enable to a business to effectively staff and oversee operations without having a deficit of surplus of workers-- (which would hinder profits if it were to happen). Further, an all-encomapssing sales forecast later serves as crucial data for a business to analyze and benchmark against previous results, learning from decisions made in the past to improve results for the next quarter, year or even 5 years.
Forecast outturn is an estimate of expenditure made before the Appropriation Accounts have been prepared.
The weather forecast provided by NOAA is generally considered to be accurate, as they use advanced technology and data to make their predictions. However, like any forecast, there is always a margin of error due to the unpredictable nature of weather.
There are many good websites to monitor the stock market forecast. A few are Business Insider, Stock Market Outlook, Chartsedge, and The Market Forecast. All Are dot com websites.
Sales forecasting is using business intelligence to develop a strategy for budgets. Business intelligence is the data used to get the sales forecast.
It allows you to forecast future costs needed to do business.