What does causal inference mean?

A causal inference may not be supported by known facts, but can often be correctly assumed.

Right after I saw lightning outside, our electricity went out. (causal: lightning caused the outage)

While it was raining very hard, I noticed the window was leaking water. (causal; rainwater found a break around the window)

After mom's car hit the pothole, the tire blew. (causal: the sharp edge of the pothole caused the tire to blow)